Thursday, December 8, 2016

VIX possible bounce



This is chart of VXX 12/8/16 at 12:17pm ET. After looking at volume and assets under management of the top volatility ETF's I decided to use VXX because it has the highest volume and assets under management, even though it has a built-in value decay over time.

I got some VXX Jan 20th 27/32 Call Spreads for $1.10 each. Max risk is the premium I paid for them (cost). My target is around 31-33 either mid-Dec 2016 or early Jan 2017. The VIX was 12.49 and the VXX was 26.63 at the time I bought the spreads.

Here's what I was thinking:

VIX hit 11.30 this morning pre-market and bounced.
VIX low since 2008 is 10.28. We're pretty close.
VXX weekly chart easily hits the 20 SMA when it pops. The weekly 20 SMA will be approximately 33 in my opinion if volatility pops.
VXX daily chart easily hits the 50 SMA on a good pop. It will be approximately 31 if it pops soon, in my opinion.
The Risk:Reward for this trade is about 1:5.
At the time of the trade, you can see on the chart above:

  • Stochastics (14,3,3) and Stochastics (35,10,3) are under 20 and rising.
  • Price bounced off the bottom Bollinger Band yesterday.
  • There is a possible Morning Star candlestick pattern forming.

Also, according to recent tweets from the Stock Trader's Almanac (www.stocktradersalmanac.com), there is a seasonal dip in equities in mid-Dec and the Santa Clause Rally ends the second trading day of Jan.

And, the market is crazy to be complacent in the current crazy new world.

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