ES Dec Short Short - Exit

The original post referred to this trade as a "high risk trade". Next time I write that phrase, hopefully it will be a red flag to change my mind and not take the trade. But that didn't work this time.

The Stop was hit 10/19/21 6:54am ET at 4501.

Summary:

Entry 4471.00 10/18/21 14:40 ET.

Exit 4501.00 10/19/21 06:54.

Loss 4471 - 4501 = 30 * $5/pt = -$150.

ES Dec Short Short

You always hear "Don't fight the Fed". I agree with that, however, pull backs do occur. Just look at the 4 hour ES S&P 500 December futures chart above for proof. This post is titled "Short Short" because this trade will attempt to fight the Fed and may not last 24 hours.

Since this is a high risk trade, we want to use as small a position as possible, then scale in with more contracts later as the trade continues in our favor. So, I'm just using 1 micro ES contract with Symbol MES to start. The ES point value is $50 while the MES point value is $5.

The notes on the chart show an AB/CD pattern and a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement as 2 sources of possible coincident resistance. These can be combined by simply saying its a Gartley pattern.

In addition to the Gartley, there is also a possible Negative Stochastics Divergence.

These are sufficient to look for a reversal here, but there's more. If you look left, you'll see previous rejections of this price level on 9/27/21, 9/15/21, 9/14/21, and 9/13/21. Before that, this level acted as support on 9/9/21. Off the screenshot above, there's also resistance on 8/24/21 and 8/25/21.

I expect we may get some higher highs overnight. If so we'll have to correct the Gartley D point in the morning, which will change the Target value. But for now, the Target will be .618AD, which is 4479.75 - .618(4479.75 - 4260) = 4344. We'll use a Stop of about 20 points, specifically 4500.50.

Summary:

Enter: 4471.00

Stop: 4500.50

Initial Target: 4344.00

Risk: 4471-4500.5=29.5

Reward: 4471-4344=127

R:R = 127/29.5 = 4.3:1 which is excellent!

Dec Wheat Bullish Gartley Re-entry - Exit

Target hit! I posted yesterday "My expectation though, is to cut right through it." with regard to the previous consolidation level. This was because we already bounced off it once and came right back, plus we were looking strong after the Ag report came out yesterday. Well, take a look at the Daily chart above. Please just focus on the yellow annotations, and of course, the candles. I think that qualifies as "cutting right through it".

So we hit our 744 target and then some, and its currently only 12:12pm ET as I write this. There's enough time to continue up to the 763 .786AD secondary target, but I'm not trading that one. These Gartley patterns are terrific!

Summary:

Entry 725 3/4

Exit 744

Profit 744 - 725 3/4 = 18 1/4 * $10/pt = $182.50 

If we used the ZW full sized contract: Profit 744 - 725 3/4 = 18 1/4 * $50/pt = $912.50

We've had 3 actual trades within this Gartley pattern since this thread began. Here is the net:

9/20/21 -$120

9/24/21 +$183.75

10/1/21 +$182.50

Net +$246.25 profit. 

If we used the full sized ZW contract it would have been $246.25 * 5 = +$1,231.25