Possible GLD Targets to the Downside - Update 1

Remember the "Possible GLD Targets to the Downside" post from 11/24/2020 (https://jmstweets.blogspot.com/2020/11/possible-gld-targets-to-downside.html)? The last target on the list was 158.46. Yesterday's low in GLD was 158.43 and today's low was 158.55.

I think this is where we make a low and bounce higher. I think so because we're at a significant Fib level that coincides with a previous congestion area back in May of 2020, we're exactly at the recent Head & Shoulders projection, and Stochastics are very low. But if we continue lower, here are a couple additional targets.

147.33 (green 50%)

136.21 (green 61.8%)

120.39 (green 78.6%)

Since I think its likely we bounce from here, I got some options:

GLD Apr 160 Call's for $3.44 (x100 shares = $344).

EUR/USD March Futures Hourly XABCD Gartley - Exit

The good news is it hit our D@AB/CD entry as well as our D@.786XA entry and the order was automatically activated as intended with targets and stops. The bad news is it kept going and going until it hit our stop.

It was a reaction to Fed Chair Powell's speech today. It effected many markets. Tomorrow is another possible market moving news day with the Non-Farm Payroll report at 8:30am ET. So this trade definitely had a significant Headline Risk aspect. Too bad, it was a very nice setup.

In summary,

Entry: 2@1.2021

Exit: 2@1.1991

1.2021-1.1991=30pips*$1.25=$37.5*2=-$75. Loss.

EUR/USD March Futures Hourly XABCD Gartley

This chart is very busy. Please just look at the candlesticks and what's in yellow.

Its 11:17pm ET on 3/3/2021 and I'm looking at the Euro/US Dollar March Futures on the hourly chart. I see an XABCD (or Gartley) pattern developing. The X,A,B, and C points have been identified in yellow. The D point hasn't formed yet, assuming it does in the near future.

We want the D point such that D=C-(A-B) and therefore, AB=CD. You also want D on a Fibonacci level based on XA. On this chart D=1.20835-(1.2116-1.20455)=1.2013. The closest Fib is the .786XA=1.2116-.786(1.2116-1.19945)=1.20205.

We'll use the 1.20205 to enter because we may never hit the 1.2013. And we'll use targets based on the 1.2013 because they will be closer than targets based on 1.20205. Then, when the actual D is known, if ever, we'll adjust the targets accordingly.

I decided to initially enter 2 orders using the M6E mini contract, where 1 point is $1.25 rather than $12.50 on the full size contract. Then when we're in the trade and its going in our favor, we can add positions and targets. The 2 orders are for 2 targets, namely the .5AD and .618AD levels. The .618AD is the "real" target. The .5AD is just gravy along the way. It also provides a cash cushion in case we reverse and hit the Stop before hitting the .618AD target. The Stop will be just under the X point at 1.1993.

Here are my orders on the IB TWS platform:

The risk, based on just one order is:

1.2021 - 1.1993 = 28 pips * $1.25 = $35.

The reward,  based on just the .618AD target:

1.2076 - 1.2021 = 55 pips * $1.25 = $68.75

So, the Risk/Reward is 68.75/35 = 1:2 which is good.

Gold April 15 Minute Futures Possible XABCD Pattern - Cancel

Pattern failed. Order never filled. Never mind. Cancelled order.

Gold April 15 Minute Futures Possible XABCD Pattern

The D point is unknown for this XABCD pattern currently in progress. In fact, the D point may not set up at all. But if it does, this is a nice Risk/Reward trade and a good probability of hitting the .618AD target. But if you're not familiar with AB/CD or XABCD patterns, this will be very complicated and confusing. These are explained all over the internet.

So far, we've established the X, A, B, and C points:

X=1757.40

A=1704.60

B=1734.60

C=1718.50

D=?

The 2 possible ideal entry points would be a swing high where CD=AB, which is where D=1748.50, and at the .786XA, which is 1746.10.

Here are the possible targets based on each of the 2 ideal D points:

D@AB/CD=1748.50

.5AD=1726.55

.618AD=1721.3698

.786AD=1713.9946

1.618XA=1671.9696

D@.786XA=1746.10

.5AD=1725.35

.618AD=1720.453

.786AD=1713.481

1.618XA=1671.9696

So, since the .786XA is easier to hit, because its closer to the current price action, we'll use a Sell Limit order at 1746.10. 

We'll use the .618AD as the target. Since the target for the D at CD=AB will be easier to hit because it'll be closer to that price action, we'll use 1721.50 as the initial target. We'll adjust the target when the actual D point is known, assuming this pattern develops ok.

We'll use a Stop of 1757.60, just outside the X point.

So, I entered the following order for MGC mini Gold Futures contract ($10/pt):

Entry: Sell Limit 1746.00

Target: Buy Limit 1721.50

Stop: Buy Stop 1757.60

This order will be working while I'm doing other things, like sleeping. When I learn its been filled, I'll recalculate the .618AD target based on the actual D point. The Stop will remain the same. Until then, here's the Risk/Reward based on the estimated entry and target. 

Risk: 1746.00-1757.60=-11.6*$10/pt=$116.

Reward: 1746.00-1721.50=24.5*$10/pt=$245.

R:R=245/116=2:1 which is better than several of our recent trades, and a good ratio.

May Corn Rise - Exit

Maybe it was the Full Moon this past Saturday, or we're in a sideways channel, or maybe 572 on Feb 9th was a medium term high. Whatever the cause, we had a Bearish Left/Right Combo candlestick sell pattern formed by today's candle and the previous trading day, followed by a close significantly below the 8ema.

Maybe we bounce back up tomorrow but today the best thing to do is exit this trade. Today's trading was also weak in Soybeans and even weaker in Wheat.

So, we sold our YC May Corn contract for 538 3/8. We had purchased that for 549 1/2 on 2/16/21.

538 3/8 - 549 1/2 = -11.125 = -$111.25