UE Double Headed Double Short - Exit

Target 1 16.75? Nailed it! (18.56-16.75)*100=+$181.00

Target 2 16.34? Nailed it! (18.56-16.34)*50=+$111.00

Target 3 16.15? Nailed it! (18.56-16.15)*50=+$120.50

Total $412.50

Of course now I'm thinking why didn't I risk more? Because it was before the trade instead of after lol. 

The first target was hit in the pre-market, which was kind of cool. I was doing my prep work before the market opened and all of a sudden I hear Ding! I thought uh oh, what the heck is that? Crazy heavy market volume messing up my platform already? Then I found where the 1st target was filled. Felt like free money. Nice way to start the day. 

Then 9:32am ET the second target was hit, and 9:45am the 3rd target was hit. This was a really cool Double Head and Shoulders setup and a very cool exit with all targets hit.

UE Double Headed Double Short - Update 5

UE opened gapped down, which is a bearish indication. At first it went up to fill in the gap and catch any orders that were resting there and didn't get a chance to fill. That is very common. But after filling the gap, it started right back down. All the way, and then some. Finally closing near the bottom. These are also bearish indications.

The first target was 16.75 for half the position. Today's low was 16.84. Only 9 cents away!

It was very tempting to just sell the first 100 shares at the close because its certainly possible we bounce tomorrow and maybe this is the bottom for a long time.

I had to take a breath and say ok wait a minute, what are the chances we continue down tomorrow vs having hit the bottom today.  All the bearish reasons we went short to begin with and breaking a double neckline, and having filled the gap, which eliminates the pressure to fill the gap going forward, I have to think if we do go up tomorrow, it'll be to test the neckline from the underside and then come back down. Also, being so close to my order it seems likely it'll take a dip or gap down a little before heading back up. So I resisted the urge to take the profit from the first half position.

I added Fibonacci levels to the chart today and see the 61.8% retracement (16.33) lines up just above the 2nd target of 16.15. The 61.8% Fib level is a common retracement which added to the decision to leave the first 100 shares in place for a better exit tomorrow.

When I saw where the 61.8% level was I made a change to the exit order for the 2nd 100 shares. I split it in half so 50 shares have the original target of 16.15, and entered a new order for the other 50 shares to sell at 16.34 for the 61.8% Fib.

Something that did give me pause, is that today's candle looks like an inverted hammer candle, and the stochastics are very low. That suggests this is a bottom. Maybe a local bottom, maybe a long term bottom. It was difficult not to take any profits at the close but a very common problem for traders is to take profits too early. The decision to leave the position on seemed like the harder decision but the better one.

UE Double Headed Double Short - Update 4

Beautiful day for this trade. It opened higher than yesterday's close, right on the lower yellow neckline and immediately started dropping. You can see there's no upper wick on today's candle.

Then it meandered down all day and closed 1 cent above the low. And it closed below yesterday's low. This is very supportive of a bearish view.

This trade is on track.

UE Double Headed Double Short - Update 3

Yesterday while the major equity indices closed amazingly lower and got everybody's attention, UE did nothing. But today we got what we wanted. Finally! Price closed under both necklines.

Like I said last time, we may get a re-test of the necklines, but there's a good probability we'll eventually hit our targets.

Looking forward to seeing what happens with this unusual double headed Head & Shoulders pattern.

UE Double Headed Double Short - Update 2

It's Friday and the equity markets are closing at roughly about 1% down for the day. Yesterday they closed down also. Looking at UE, you can there have been many days when it opened above the 8ema, but no day since 1/27/2020 it closed appreciably higher then the 8ema. That's a long time and certainly bearish. I don't think I mentioned that in the video.

So, all the reasons I shorted this stock initially are still valid. Considering price has come back down since I covered my short, and hasn't made a new high, and closed under the 8ema, plus the general market bearish behavior, I re-shorted my 200 shares today at 18.56 which is only 4 cents from where we shorted originally.

Still have the 2 Mar 20 Calls for protection.

If we break though and close under these necklines, we should see some very favorable price action to the downside. Price may come back up and test the necklines from underneath before turning back down towards our targets. If that should happen, its a validation this trade should work out.

GLD Bullish Cup and Handle - Exit

GLD rose again to hit the first target of the 27.2 Fib extension = half Cup & Handle target. Because the option will expire in 2 days I seriously doubt we'll make it up to the 2nd target in time.

So I sold at the 1st target at 1.65, and profit of (1.65 - 1.15) *100=$50 per spread. Subtract the other spread that expired worthless: $50-$115=$-65 per position.

Not really very satisfying. Why didn't we make money even though price hit our 1st target? Timing. We were expecting the Cup & Handle pattern to work or fail, but it did neither. It formed a whole new rounded bottom pattern. Its just a weird pattern that caused us a long enough delay such that the 1st short term option expired.

Is there a lesson? Yes. I always ask myself when a trade completes, success or failure, what can I learn from this trade. The lesson here is I chose short term options for the higher Gamma and therefore higher profit, if the trade worked. I did not consider the possibility the Cup and Handle pattern would morph into a sloppy mess. 

So going forward, I intend to give myself more time for a trade to work out, and sacrifice a higher Gamma and a higher cost of the options, by choosing a later expiration date.

If you're not familiar with option Gamma, its a 2nd derivative of Delta. That is, Delta is the rate of change of how much the option price changes in response to a change in the underlying security, and Gamma is the rate of change of Delta. So you could say Gamma is the acceleration of how much the option price changes in response to a change in the underlying security, or Gamma is the rate of change of the rate of change.

March Soybean Oil Looks Pretty Slick - Exit

Well, this once promising trade has been ruined by the COVID-19 pandemic. Today was another day spent completely under the 8ema and the most recent swing high peaking 2/12/20 has a lower high than the previous swing high on 2/6/20. That's a bearish indication.

However, we haven't closed below the 200sma since we entered the trade on 2/12/20, or the 6 trading days before that. That makes it a more difficult choice.

If we hold the position, it could go back up, especially if there's promising news. But we have no technical edge on hoping for good news. The 200 sma support could keep us afloat though until good news does come to bail us out. That idea doesn't carry much weight against the fact that we closed below the 8ema the past 3 trading days in a row.

Really, the choice is clear. Only emotion has me looking for an excuse not to bail out on this trade. If we get out now versus waiting for price to hit our stop loss, we'll cut our losses approximately in half.

So I waited for the end of the trading day for the grains market, giving ZL the chance to reverse. But it didn't, so I sold it for 30.49.

Loss is (30.49-30.94)*600/pt=$-270. Not good, but necessary.

BTW, ignore the tiny little candle at the far right of the chart. That's trading from the 8:00pm ET beginning of the overnight session. 

GLD Bullish Cup and Handle - Update 9

Price closed decidedly above the Cup and Handle "brimline". Finally. But the remaining 150/155 Call Spread expires on the 21st, 3 days from now.

The position value closed the day at break even. On one hand, I'm thinking get out while I can. On the other hand, I'm thinking this is the break out we've been waiting for and with the option spread so close to expiration we should have a very high Gamma, which means the long 150 Call option will increase in value quickly as we move up past 150, and the short 155 Call will lose value quickly because we're below 155 with time running out. The high Gamma will accelerate our gains if price continues to rise.

It's not unlikely price could come back down for a short time to retest the brimline then shoot back up. If it takes 3 days to do that, we'll make very little money. If it continues going up without a retest, we'll do nicely. I've never heard any statistics about how often a Cup and Handle break out retests versus doesn't. Wish I did. It would come in handy right about now.

So, if we consider the probability of price going below 150 in the next 3 days to be low, then the choice is between capturing our cost and getting out today for a sure thing, or holding on for a little profit or a nice profit. Decision is to hold the position.

Also, a voice in the back of my head reminds me one of the biggest mistakes traders make is getting out too soon, which reinforces the decision to stay in.

UE Double Headed Double Short - Update 1

This trade was dependent on the event of price closing below the neckline. It went the other way today. The previous 2 candles formed a Bullish Harami pattern but didn't confirm because it closed under the 8ema. Today it did. 

You can see today's candle closed over the 8ema but it also closed right on the 200sma. That's a possible signal price will reverse tomorrow and go back down, but that's just a hint versus an actual signal of a green candle closing over the 8ema. Plus today's action was on relatively strong volume.

Also, notice the low of the big red candle on 2/13/20 is higher than the low on the previous swing low on 1/31/20. A higher low is a bullish sign.

There are some other indications, but they provide additional contradictory suggestions. Bottom line is that the strongest evidence is bullish. 

So, what I did was cover the 200 short sales for 18.80 near the market close. Loss is:

(18.60-18.80)*100=-19.80

(18.60-18.80)*100=-23.00

Total -42.80

Small loss, imposing no emotional resistance.

I kept the March 20 Calls for 2 reasons. One is if today was a genuine bullish reversal then the Calls will increase in value. The other reason is that if this a fake out, and price starts downward, I'll want to get back into a short position, and I'll need the Calls for protection.

UE Double Headed Double Short (Video)

This is a really cool setup for a number of reasons. First it has 2 Head and Shoulder patterns with coincident necklines. If price breaks through one, it'll break through the other. 

There's a lot going on here so I made a 12 minute video:

https://youtu.be/AVAFNSIflAc

The options for this stock are terrible, in that they have a large Bid/Ask Spread and almost no volume. However, I can use them for protection to the upside if I short the stock. Since I'd exercise the options rather than sell them, the Bid/Ask Spread and liquidity don't matter.

Here's a screen shot of the calls I got:

I've been trading futures and Forex much more these days than stocks, but when I trade stocks I like to use a Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart to confirm its a good setup from a completely different angle. Here's that chart from FreeStockCharts:

Price is below the Kumo cloud and all the lines, and the lagging line has dropped below price. So this is a good bearish setup from a Ichimoku perspective.

I forgot to mention in the video the AB/CD price projection. See the purple lines in the original chart above. Notice how the D point, which is the target estimate, coincides with the price projection from the smaller Head and Shoulders.

Summary:

Shorted 200 @ 18.58
Got 2 Mar 20 Calls @ .10 for protection.
2 Targets 16.75 and 16.15, H&S=S/R, H&S=AB/CD.
Risk (20-18.58)*200=$284
Reward=(18.58-16.75)*100+(18.58-16.15)*100=$526

GLD Bullish Cup and Handle - Update 8

Another day, another Doji gap up. Looks like we cleared the possible resistance levels from 2012. Now we need to continue upward past the highs of previous days and finally break through the neckline, described in an earlier post.

The long term stochastics are just barely overbought on the Daily chart, and the short term stochastics are still in the mid-range. So we have plenty of headroom. 

We're definitely heading in the right direction with increasing volume, so hold on and keep your eyes open.

March Soybean Oil Looks Pretty Slick - Update 3

While today's price action was making that upper wick, the candle looked green and happy, rising like a cake for Valentine's Day. Then somebody kicked the oven and the cake collapsed, and dripped over the pan onto the bottom of the oven. That's an ugly looking cake.

However, we did close above the 200 sma and never violated it. But we haven't been able to close meaningfully over the 8ema for several days either. It really looks like it could go either way, up or down.

Price is so close to the stop loss, it doesn't make sense to exit the trade manually. Well, it would be safer to avoid the three day weekend (Monday is President's Day in the USA). But, the original sentiment was bullish and it got derailed by the COVID 19 virus, in my opinion. So we held the position.

Frankly, I don't know if the decision was thoughtful and disciplined or whether I was just rationalizing to avoid the pain of loss and possible pain of seeing a gap up next week after getting out. At the moment I'm concerned about the three days of headline risk but I'm not sorry about the decision. Not yet.

GLD Bullish Cup and Handle - Update 7

GLD continues to improve. Its just a Doji among several Doji's recently, so we shouldn't get very confident about it, but it gapped up and couldn't fully fill the gap, which shows some strength.

Also, notice today's high is higher than the most recent swing high 3 candles ago. That shows some strength.

We're up against a resistance level so we might level out here for a few days, or even start a down leg.

This Cup and Handle  pattern is on its 3rd handle when there should be only one. So I'm losing confidence, but we are generally going in the right direction. Up.

Decision has to be to hold the position. However, the first of 2 differently dated 150-155 Call Spreads, introduced at the beginning of this thread, will expire at the end of the day tomorrow. Pretty sure its going to expire worthless, so I dropped the asking price to a minimal quarter of the cost.

March Soybean Oil Looks Pretty Slick - Update 2

This morning, today's candle was red clear down to the 200sma. Not what a long position holder wants to see. By the close today it managed to shrink back up to close higher than yesterday's open. As usual there's good news and bad news.

Good news is that price could barely do more than touch the 200sma. Also it closed within the possible up channel. And of course the close so much higher than the low. In addition, since today's candle body doesn't fit within yesterday's candle body, these 2 candles don't form a bearish pattern. 

Bad news is that price closed under the 8ema today, and of course it was a serious red candle when we were expecting a green candle today. 

Feeling very fortunate and grateful my stop loss wasn't triggered today, which could have easily been the case. Holding the position and looking forward to see what happens tomorrow. 

March Soybean Oil Looks Pretty Slick - Update 1

I woke up this morning to find someone has vandalized my beautifully bullish March Soybean Oil chart! This chart image is from 6am ET.

I'm tempted to lower my stop because if its hit, price will immediately reverse and start back up. But that's just an emotional reaction, although not without past experience where that's exactly what happened. Price could drop much further, even though I don't think it will. The smart trade is to leave the stop in place, and if its hit, and price reverses, then drop down to a shorter time frame and asses the chart whether and where to get back in a long position.

A source of confidence price won't make it down to the stop is that  the open of this down candle (31.00) is lower than the close of the previous candle (31.03), which means a close the current candle below the open of the previous candle would not be a valid candle pattern.

So, I'm going to leave my stop loss unchanged and expect more civil people will start buying at 9:30am ET and keep buying all day.

March Soybean Oil Looks Pretty Slick (Video)

Found what looks like a great opportunity in March Soybean Oil. Anything can happen, and the patterns can fail of course, but this looks very promising at the moment. I found 9 bullish indications price should trend higher from here.

Not only that, but the target level has four (4) different independent indications. And, as a bonus, this trade has a fantastic Risk/Reward Ratio.

Check out this 10 minute video for all the details:

https://youtu.be/YFCgvQpT9r4

Bottom line:

Entered long 2/12/2020 at 30.94

Target set at 32.74

Stop loss set at 30.25

Risk = (30.94-30.25)*$600 = $414

Reward=(32.74-30.94)*$600 = $1,080

R:R=1080/414=2.6:1

GLD Bullish Cup and Handle - Update 6

GLD isn't looking well today. We rejected off the resistance level, spent time under the 8ema, and the ADX crossed negatively. However, we did close above the 8ema and bounced off the 20dma.

This is not what a Cup and Handle should look like, but not quite ready to exit until we form a bearish candle pattern and close under the 8ema.

So, I'm staying in and relying on my GLD April 145 Put. If I didn't mention it before, I got this Put option on 2/4/20 for $1.97 for protection.

ZW March Wheat Story of Heroic Discipline - Exit

I kinda caved today. The target was 524 but I saw some signs of a potential bounce tomorrow and didn't want to give up the gains. So I changed the target to the 61.8% Fib retracement at 536 1/2.

We got close to the new target near the end of the grains market hours (2:20pm ET). We hadn't hit the target yet and I figured day traders will start to take profits soon by covering their shorts, which will drive the price up. 

I also saw today was a relatively large candle. Large candles tend to retrace the next day, usually by about half the candle or so. 

Also, we hit the Head and Shoulders half measured move; see the thin purple horizontal line. I've seen where that level has provided strong support in the past, and there's no guarantee we'll hit the 61.8% Fib.

In addition, the stochastics entered oversold territory under the 20 level. This is where you start looking for a reversal in price trend.

Frankly, I do think there's a good chance price will make it all the way down to the original target at 524 eventually, but the observations above, combined with the memory of the pain of giving up several hundred dollars the last time I gave Wheat some leeway, and I decided to tighten things up.

So, I went down to the 10 minute chart with the thought I'll ride this down as far as I can and see what it looks like right before the close, but if I see any kind of reversal signal, I'm selling. 

Price continued down and respected a downward trend line on the 10 minute chart (see the down angled thin white line), until it started to reverse a little. Then I lowered my stop loss just over the trend line but high enough that price shouldn't hit it if the momentum was still down. As you probably guessed, price pierced the trend line and continued up until it hit my stop. It never went back down below it before the close, which made me feel validated.

So right now, I feel great. Made 556 1/4 (2/6/20) - 541 = 15 1/4 * $50/pt = $762.50. If you subtract what I lost on the unexpected reversal (see the original posting on 2/6/20), then net profits other than commission is $762.50 - 275 = $487.50.

I'll count that as a win. Plus if we get a bounce tomorrow, which would not be surprising, then if it makes a nice high, we can get back in and ride it back down again. If not, I don't want to chase it with the low stochastics, but I'll be looking for a bottom to catch the retrace or reversal back up.

GLD Bullish Cup and Handle - Update 5

Last 2 days shows doji's on the Daily chart. That doesn't show much conviction but they both closed above the 8ema, which is bullish. We also charged right through the 20 sma, the 3ema crossed over the 8ema, and the DMI+ crossed over the DMI-. These are all bullish.

However, we still need to get through some resistance around 148 and then the Cup & Handle "brim line". Its too early to make a confident call.

I don't think our Feb 14th 150/155 Call Spread is going to survive. We'd need some large green candles to get the full spread. If the first handle was the only handle, like a normal Cup & Handle pattern, we had a good chance of the spread expiring in the money. But wee had this large unexpected bigger handle that set us back.

Holding on to both Call Spreads for now.

ZW March Wheat Story of Heroic Discipline - Update 2

Good confirmation today I made the right decision to take the loss on the long position and go short. Unrealized gains are roughly equal to the loss at the 14:20 ET close already.

Today's candle combined with yesterday's candle form a Bearish Engulfing pattern. Same is true for the 2 candles before those. And we closed well below the 8ema. This is the good news for our short.

Today we closed right on the 50 daily SMA. This moving average can provide support with the effect of  price rising from here. However, we did close near the bottom of today's range, which is encouraging for a bearish position. We also closed under a previous long term trend line. And after some congestion around the neckline of the purple colored Head & Shoulders, we closed under that as well, which is bearish.

I'm concerned about bouncing too far off the 50sma, but you can see we already bounced off the 50sma on 2/3/20. Since we already paid our respects to the 50sma, we can now slice right through it. In case this sounds crazy, I've seen this many, many times. Where price will initially respect a major moving average by bouncing off it, but then come back to retest it. And the retest fails with price punching right through the moving average. That's what I'm counting on this time.

If we bounce off the 50sma and close above the 8ema, we may have a problem. Of course, I'm holding the short position and waiting to see what happens next.

5 open gaps on the YM March Futures of the Dow Jones Industrials Index Since 12/3/19

You may have heard the saying "gaps get filled". Its usually true in my experience. Sometimes in a fast moving market it takes a long time for the market to get back to that area. But its usually within days or weeks.

The extremely fast run up the past few days in the equity futures left a number of gaps. They stick out like holes in the chart. I started looking for more and found 5 open gaps since 12/3/19. The futures contract rollover from the Dec. contract to the Mar contract was Dec 12-13. So you don't want to go back too far.

I don't know if there's a correlation between the size of a gap and the speed with which it gets filled. I've heard the reason the market likes to fill gaps is because there may be unfilled orders sitting in those gaps that didn't get the opportunity to be filled. If that's true, then the bigger the gap, the more orders might be sitting in there. And that would increase the desire to go back and fill those big gaps.

After today's close of the YM Mar futures, you can see an Evening Star (3 candle pattern) with high Stochastics. That's a bearish sign. If we go down from here to fill those gaps, then we'll form a double top, where the tops will be the peaks on 1/17/20 and yesterday 2/6/20. A double top is also a bearish pattern.

We didn't close under the 8ema today, so the Evening Star hasn't confirmed yet. We'll have to sit out the weekend and see what happens next week. 

Why worry, the Fed has our backs, right?

ZW March Wheat Story of Heroic Discipline - Update 1

Today's candle closed as a Doji Candle. A doji represents indecision. But it closed below the 8ema, which is encouraging. However, the doji is within the body of yesterday's candle. This forms a Bullish Harami pattern, which is bullish.

The doji is trapped between the 8ema above it and the 50sma below it. This often leads to a consolidation for a few days as price bounces between these 2 moving averages that can act as support and resistance. If this is what happens, I may not post updates until price breaks out one way or the other.

GLD Bullish Cup and Handle - Update 4

We got a nice little doji candle higher than the previous 2 threatening candles. It could not be closer to the 8ema without being on top of it. Better than being decidedly under it.

Would have preferred a more definitive candle with a close over the 8ema, but I'll take it as encouragement we're on our way back up. Although we're not out of the woods yet.

ZW March Wheat Story of Heroic Discipline (Video)

I had confirmation this morning I made a good decision to go long March Wheat yesterday. I was busy with other trading and other things today, confident my ZW futures were doing well.

The grains market closes 14:20 ET. 14:15 I looked in on it. Aaaahhh!!! Slapped in the face with a bucket of ice cold Gatorade like Andy Reid at the Super Bowl last Sunday (I know, it wasn't in the face).

My 2nd thought was "I better get down to business, I don't have much time here". Less than 5 minutes to figure out what happened, what to do, and do it without screwing up from all the adrenaline.

Please see this 12 minute video for what happened and how I handled it in a way of which I can be proud. Although I may find reasons not to be so proud if things go against me tomorrow.

https://youtu.be/qo5NFjHqMVM

Oh, a few things I forgot in the video:

You'll see a thin, downward slanted, white line in the stochastics window on the bottom of the chart. The prices on the chart during that same time, Jun 15st - Jun 22nd, are going up. This is called a Negative Stochastics Divergence. You'll see the NSD in my on chart notes. This is a bearish indication.

Also, the pattern in purple is a Head and Shoulders pattern. The lower vertical purple line is a measured move projection of where prices are likely to go if the neckline is broken. The neckline was broken with closed candles below the neckline 1/31/20 - 2/4/20. This projection ends right near the level of the other 3 target indicators.

The thick white curvy line on the bottom of the chart is the 200 daily sma. It looks like it is headed right for the target zone, which is a 5th indication of a good target area.

GLD Bullish Cup and Handle - Update 3

Today we formed a 2 candle pattern that is very close to a Bullish Harami. The 2nd candle is supposed to be within the open and close of the previous candle. Yesterday's close was 146.43 and today's open was 146.38, so technically its not really a Harami. 

However, it did close a little higher than yesterday, so that's enough for me to hold this trade open for now. Probably should have exited this trade yesterday, but a little intuition and judgement is what human's have to offer over robots, right? This is what I'm telling myself anyway, to avoid the pain of taking a loss, then having to re-enter the trade anyway.

They say psychology is 80% of trading. I'm still working on that part.

TLT Weekly Flag Breakout - Exit

Well, this price action looks like *@#$! Gap down, stayed below the trend line, stayed below the 8ema, ADX inverting, 3ema crossing down over the 8ema, significant volume, stochastics heading down from a pegged overbought level, and whatever else I'm not noticing at the moment.

There is no doubt we are supposed to exit this trade now. So I sold the TLT May 145/150 Call Spreads for 1.15 that I bought for 1.70. So the loss is 55/170=32%. Not good, but we did enter with overbought stochastics, so can't be too surprised. Would have been worse if we didn't use a 3 month out spread.

I have a feeling more fear in the markets is coming, and more Federal Reserve purchasing of US debt is coming, and interest rate suppression to make the debt more affordable is coming, so continue to keep an eye on TLT for a resumption of a bullish move.

GLD Bullish Cup and Handle - Update 2

This one is a little tough. First, I see I got in too early. Price didn't close over the "brim line" (just made that up) of the Cup and Handle. I should have waited for that and I didn't.

Today we traded all day under the Brim Line, under the 8ema, and under the 20dma. That's bearish, but two things kept me in the trade. One is that there's often volatility around a break out point, so feel like I want to be a little tolerant. The other thing is that we're vertically in the middle of the pattern, and didn't come very close to the stop loss (145), relatively speaking.

Because we closed under the 8ema, I should exit the trade and look to get back in if its warranted. But I want to give it another day and see if we can recover. This may be my second mistake on this trade.

TLT Weekly Flag Breakout - Update 3

This is a weekly chart, so the rightmost candle is this week to date, which is just yesterday and today. Looking at that candle you can see lost some ground, but we closed above the 3ema, which is currently higher than the 8ema. As long as we close above the 8ema we're still considered in an uptrend. 

On the daily, not pictures, we closed right on the 8ema.

So, we stay in the trade for now.

GLD Bullish Cup and Handle - Update 1

Gold gapped down, but the GLD ETF is a very gappy chart, so we need to be cautious about how much weight we give to gaps. That being said, gapping down is quite bearish.

However, after a trip down through the 8ema, price rallied back up and closed over the 8ema. This tells us to stay in the trade. We'll see how things develop. Anything is possible no matter what the candlesticks and patterns show us.

TLT Weekly Flag Breakout - Update 2

TLT on the weekly chart is looking good. It has stayed above the 3ema for the entire current candle.

Steady as she goes.