Wednesday, April 26, 2017

XLV Looking Healthy


I'll explain why I'm bullish, but first let me tell you how I acted on it. I got some June 76 Calls for $.95 each when XLV was $75.36. Target is the 127.2% Fib at 78.84 but I entered my conditional sell order at 78.80 to be a little conservative. This option currently has a Delta of about 43% and Gamma of .13. That will rise as the underlying rises about $.13 for every dollar move of the underlying. So at the target the Delta should be about 78.84-75.36=3 x .13=.39 + .43 = .82. If we average the Delta's that's (43%+82%)/2 = 62.5%. So the value of the option is roughly ($3 x 62.5%) +  .95 = $2.83. That gives us a Risk:Reward of .95/2.83 = approximately 1:3.

Here's what I see that makes me bullish:

Jhook: strong move from 1/31/17 to 3/15/17 followed by profit taking and now a resurgence.

Double Doji Kicker: 3 days ago we had a down candle then a gap up to a doji and another gap up to a doji and today looks like a green candle, but the day is not over. I really should have waited until we were close to the close. If we close with a nice green bar then we have the pattern we want. Otherwise I may exit back out.

Close above all Moving Averages: Yesterday's close was above all the moving averages I have on the chart and today gapped up again and is moving higher.

The Bollinger Bands are breaking out of the Keltner Channel to the upside. This often means a strong continuation pattern will follow.

The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (I nicknamed it Ichi) chart looks great. Price is breaking out of the cloud and the trailing line is breaking through price. Here's the Ichi chart:


Of course news could derail this whole trade and I'll have to exit, but I limited my risk to the cost of the options and I took a position less than 2% of my account.

(All my chart indicators are defined in "My standard chart indicators" posted 4/8/2015)

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