Tuesday, January 23, 2018

ULTA looking bearish


Here's what I see that makes me bearish on ULTA as of 8:45am 1/23/18:

Double Top
Bounce off 200 SMA
Evening star candle pattern
Close below 8ema
Doji gap down on stronger volume

I'm looking to get a Vertical Put Spread today if we start going further down, assuming there's a decent bid/ask spread. Looking at 230/220 and 230/210 Feb and Mar expiration. However, its more risky to enter this trade before we get a close below the up channel. So, I'll go in light before a close below the channel and add to my position after. It would be safer to wait to enter the trade at all until we do get a close below the channel.

Targeting the 50% Fib retracement which is close to the 50 SMA (in red) around 220.

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