The Bobble continues. I mentioned the Bobble on the "ZL Double Bottom Update 1" post. Price is bobbling between the 20sma and the 8ema. Today we were up at the 20sma on top of the range but we closed at the 8ema on the bottom of the range. That's not Bullish.
However, we closed on the bullish side of the 8ema. It was easy to decide to stay in the futures trade but whether to hold onto the Put option we got yesterday wasn't as obvious. Its losing value because we're higher than when we bought it, and also due to Theta time decay. It can't lose more than it cost which is $240 (see yesterday's post). Its down $80 near the close.
Am I confident the breakout from the Bobble will be through the 20sma at the top? That's what we want since we're long, but no I'm not confident because of yesterday's candle dropping pretty far below the 8ema. Also, soybeans and soy meal charts look bearish.
If I lose the whole $240 Put option value by holding it, waiting for a close above the 20sma as confirmation we don't need the Put anymore, can we afford it? Well, if we hit our target we'll make $876 (see the original "ZL Double Bottom" post in this thread). So yes, we can afford holding the Put.
So those 2 answers led me to decide to hold the option at today's close.
We've only been in the Bobble for 4 days but I am more than ready to break out already.
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