ZW March Wheat Story of Heroic Discipline (Video)

I had confirmation this morning I made a good decision to go long March Wheat yesterday. I was busy with other trading and other things today, confident my ZW futures were doing well.

The grains market closes 14:20 ET. 14:15 I looked in on it. Aaaahhh!!! Slapped in the face with a bucket of ice cold Gatorade like Andy Reid at the Super Bowl last Sunday (I know, it wasn't in the face).

My 2nd thought was "I better get down to business, I don't have much time here". Less than 5 minutes to figure out what happened, what to do, and do it without screwing up from all the adrenaline.

Please see this 12 minute video for what happened and how I handled it in a way of which I can be proud. Although I may find reasons not to be so proud if things go against me tomorrow.

https://youtu.be/qo5NFjHqMVM

Oh, a few things I forgot in the video:

You'll see a thin, downward slanted, white line in the stochastics window on the bottom of the chart. The prices on the chart during that same time, Jun 15st - Jun 22nd, are going up. This is called a Negative Stochastics Divergence. You'll see the NSD in my on chart notes. This is a bearish indication.

Also, the pattern in purple is a Head and Shoulders pattern. The lower vertical purple line is a measured move projection of where prices are likely to go if the neckline is broken. The neckline was broken with closed candles below the neckline 1/31/20 - 2/4/20. This projection ends right near the level of the other 3 target indicators.

The thick white curvy line on the bottom of the chart is the 200 daily sma. It looks like it is headed right for the target zone, which is a 5th indication of a good target area.

GLD Bullish Cup and Handle - Update 3

Today we formed a 2 candle pattern that is very close to a Bullish Harami. The 2nd candle is supposed to be within the open and close of the previous candle. Yesterday's close was 146.43 and today's open was 146.38, so technically its not really a Harami. 

However, it did close a little higher than yesterday, so that's enough for me to hold this trade open for now. Probably should have exited this trade yesterday, but a little intuition and judgement is what human's have to offer over robots, right? This is what I'm telling myself anyway, to avoid the pain of taking a loss, then having to re-enter the trade anyway.

They say psychology is 80% of trading. I'm still working on that part.

TLT Weekly Flag Breakout - Exit

Well, this price action looks like *@#$! Gap down, stayed below the trend line, stayed below the 8ema, ADX inverting, 3ema crossing down over the 8ema, significant volume, stochastics heading down from a pegged overbought level, and whatever else I'm not noticing at the moment.

There is no doubt we are supposed to exit this trade now. So I sold the TLT May 145/150 Call Spreads for 1.15 that I bought for 1.70. So the loss is 55/170=32%. Not good, but we did enter with overbought stochastics, so can't be too surprised. Would have been worse if we didn't use a 3 month out spread.

I have a feeling more fear in the markets is coming, and more Federal Reserve purchasing of US debt is coming, and interest rate suppression to make the debt more affordable is coming, so continue to keep an eye on TLT for a resumption of a bullish move.

GLD Bullish Cup and Handle - Update 2

This one is a little tough. First, I see I got in too early. Price didn't close over the "brim line" (just made that up) of the Cup and Handle. I should have waited for that and I didn't.

Today we traded all day under the Brim Line, under the 8ema, and under the 20dma. That's bearish, but two things kept me in the trade. One is that there's often volatility around a break out point, so feel like I want to be a little tolerant. The other thing is that we're vertically in the middle of the pattern, and didn't come very close to the stop loss (145), relatively speaking.

Because we closed under the 8ema, I should exit the trade and look to get back in if its warranted. But I want to give it another day and see if we can recover. This may be my second mistake on this trade.

TLT Weekly Flag Breakout - Update 3

This is a weekly chart, so the rightmost candle is this week to date, which is just yesterday and today. Looking at that candle you can see lost some ground, but we closed above the 3ema, which is currently higher than the 8ema. As long as we close above the 8ema we're still considered in an uptrend. 

On the daily, not pictures, we closed right on the 8ema.

So, we stay in the trade for now.

GLD Bullish Cup and Handle - Update 1

Gold gapped down, but the GLD ETF is a very gappy chart, so we need to be cautious about how much weight we give to gaps. That being said, gapping down is quite bearish.

However, after a trip down through the 8ema, price rallied back up and closed over the 8ema. This tells us to stay in the trade. We'll see how things develop. Anything is possible no matter what the candlesticks and patterns show us.

TLT Weekly Flag Breakout - Update 2

TLT on the weekly chart is looking good. It has stayed above the 3ema for the entire current candle.

Steady as she goes.