USDA Forecasts Third Largest Corn Crop on Record

Well, that didn't turn out very well. On a technical basis everything was working and we came close to our target, but yesterday a surprising USDA crop report came out with a much bigger than expected corn yield ("USDA Forecasts Third Largest Corn Crop on Record" http://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/2015/08_12_2015.asp) and futures tumbled.

As we know, not all trades are winners. You might conclude we should have closed the position ahead of the report, or count it in the group of losing trades and just move on to the next one.

The options are pretty much worthless now, so I'll look to sell them on a 50% Fib retracement of the recent down move.

Corn finally popping

Good day for corn. Reset target to 396, just below the 200 SMA. Plenty of room on the stochastics for an upward continuation. Also entered a limit order for $5. Whichever triggers first is good enough for me. Don't want to scale out because there's not much time to expiration, so Theta time decay is relatively high.

My original purchase was at 5 1/2 for the Sep 4.25 Call on 7/23/15. I got an additional amount on 7/27/15 for 1 7/8 because the futures price hit the 78.6% Fib and previous resistance. So, my average cost per option is (5 1/2 + 1 7/8) / 2 = 3 11/16.

Corn consolidating

Sep Corn is consolidating around the 78.6% Fibonacci level, and previous consolidation from May/June. The big question is whether it bounces (which is what this trade is counting on) or continues the down trend. The very low stochastics suggest a possible bounce.

If we do get a bounce, we need it to bounce soon before the options expire 8/21/15 2:15pm ET.

Added more Corn calls at 78.6% Fib

Corn Sep 4.25 Call purchase triggered yesterday when futures price hit both the 76.4% and 78.6% Fib levels. Looks like it may be starting to bounce. Will be interesting to see what happens by the close today.

76.4 is popular but not an actual Fib. For more on this, Google "76.4% vs 78.6% Fibonacci".

Corn dropping further before expected pop.

Sep Corn has dropped below the 50% Fib as well as the 61.8% Fib. Entered order to buy more of the same options if corn drops down to between 374 to 371, which is near the 76.4 and 78.6 Fib levels as well as possible support at previous swing highs (resistance) in May and June.

Corn looks ready for a little pop

Sep Corn Futures ZC at 200 SMA and 50% Fib of previous rise on very low stochastics. Got 25% Delta Sep options: 4.25 Call for 5 1/2 ($275). If it continues down to 61.8% Fib I'll add a lower strike Calls.

AAPL wedge update 4/28/2015 Final Update

Added a stop at the previous target of 133.60. AAPL opened at 134.46 and went straight down and hit my stop. Position sold for $4.26. I had bought the condor for $4.25 (see http://jmstweets.blogspot.com/2015/04/aapl-wedge-irresistable.html). So, after all that I broke even. Oh well, beats losing. On to the next trade.