NFLX due for a dip? Update 5

It's 11:43am ET 12/31/19 and you can see price has filled in the 320.80 - 324.18 gap and touched the 38.2% Fib retracement. These can act as support. 

But the 50% Fib would be more likely and stochastics are still high, although no longer over bought. I also noticed a lower gap at 304.21 - 306.60 as shown on the chart. These can attract price lower.

So here's what I'm doing. If we close at or above yesterday's close at 323.31 we will form a bullish engulfing pattern as well as be closing over the 8ema. If that happens I want to get out and look for a signal to re-short NFLX. If that doesn't happen then I want to stay in for a likely lower move.

To accomplish that, and not have to handle it in real time at 4pm on New Years Eve Day, I entered a conditional day market order to sell the put spread if 2 conditions are met:

1) Price of NFLX is greater than or equal to 323.31.

2) The time is greater than or equal to 15:55:55 today.

*** 4:05pm UPDATE: I made a mistake. I posted 323.31 as yesterday's close, but that's not what I was thinking. I was looking at yesterday's open (329.08), not the close. I made an even worse mistake. I copied the 323.31 from this post into my actual order instead of the 329.08 I intended. So my order triggered at 3:55 and exited my position. Not so bad really. I'll see what to do to now on Thu.

NFLX due for a dip? Update 4

Looks like we did reject the 61.8% Fib extension of the last up swing (green range). We rolled over and closed today below the 8ema. We also started filling the gap shown on the chart. Stochastics are still high so we have plenty of room to continue down.

I expect to continue down to at least the 50% retracement of the recent up swing (338-+292.02)/2 = 315.01. This is also below the gap and near the 20 DMA, as well as the previous swing high. Seems like a good target.

March 2020 Wheat Update 22

Didn't get back in today after last night's overnight trading hit my stop for break even. You can see it opened gapped up, continued up until it rejected off the channel upper trend line and Bollinger Band. Its also in the area of 2 different 27.2% Fib extensions. So its getting a little stuck in this area, and with high stochastics. But it was also supported at the 3ema today and did not venture further down to the 8ema. This is a sign of strength.

It could go either way from here, so I'm going to sit on my hands and wait for an edge.

March 2020 Wheat Update 21

12/30/19 Overnight trading last night hit my stop and reversed back up to the top of the channel. Since this could be resistance and stochastics are overbought (>80), I'm going to be a little cautious and wait to see how price performs today.

March 2020 Wheat Update 20

Woke up this morning to find the 554 1/2 buy stop was hit overnight. The chart above was captured at 12:40pm ET. Nice position to be in.

However, price touched my original target of 561 today (27.2% Fib extension on the green range) from my original posting on Mar Wheat back on 11/20/19, which could be a resistance level or worse, this is all we get before a significant downward retracement. 

I also see a channel upper trend line just above us at about 562 1/2, which coincides with the upper Bollinger Band. And the stochastics are just entering overbought territory again above 80%. Plus today is a Friday.

So, for good risk management, I increased my stop loss to break even at 555 1/4. If it gets hit today before the market close, I still have room to the current target of 573 to get back in next week.

Notice volume has been increasing during this 2 day break out to the upside. That's bullish. And the last 2 swings had a move of over 40 points, as shown in yellow on the chart. If we get a 40 point move this time it would put us at 538 1/2 + 40 = 578 1/4. So there's reason to plan on hitting the 573 target. Really hope the tightened stop  doesn't get hit today. But I think its the smart move at the moment for the reasons I stated above.

Bottom Line: I'm long from 554 3/4, with Stop Loss at 555 1/4, and Target at 573.

March 2020 Wheat Update 19

I've been waiting on Mar Wheat to hit my 554 1/2 buy stop for days. Now that its popping up I want to double check my entry level and see if I want to adjust it. 

The chart shows a thick white vertical line representing the recent down leg. Where would an entry be that gives good odds this will be a break out rather than a temporary retracement followed by resuming the down  trend? 50% retracement is pretty standard and I'd say it doesn't give us an edge. I'd have to say the same about 61.8%. 78.6% is less common but still not enough to be convincing. So something above the 78.6% (553 1/4) might be a reasonable retracement to get back in. Really, the best is over the top of the swing (557 1/4). Just so happens by coincidence my original buy stop at 554 1/2 is just over the 78.6% level (553 1/4). I originally got that level because it was just over the high of the first candle to close below the 3ema. So, I'm going to be a little aggressive and keep that buy stop.

Today's (12/26/19) move already took out the 50% and 61.8% levels. And it was with decent volume even though we're in the holiday period, which seems bullish. So, even though I'm giving up a couple points waiting for the 78.6% level to be breached, its worth it for the added probability this is a break out move and we're back on track to reach the 61.8% extension of the yellow range (573 1/4).

However, we didn't hit the 50% retracement of the recent up leg (purple range), nor did we fill in the gap at 534 3/4 - 533. So I'm still not convinced yet this isn't just a retracement before more downside.

Bottom line, currently have a live order with a 554 1/2 buy stop and a 573 target.

NFLX due for a dip? Update 3

NFLX closed just under the 3ema today on very low volume. Its barely bearish, but it looks like we could be rejecting off the 61.8% Fib extension of the last up swing (green range).

Still holding the put spreads and monitoring.