Woke up this morning to find the 554 1/2 buy stop was hit overnight. The chart above was captured at 12:40pm ET. Nice position to be in.
However, price touched my original target of 561 today (27.2% Fib extension on the green range) from my original posting on Mar Wheat back on 11/20/19, which could be a resistance level or worse, this is all we get before a significant downward retracement.
I also see a channel upper trend line just above us at about 562 1/2, which coincides with the upper Bollinger Band. And the stochastics are just entering overbought territory again above 80%. Plus today is a Friday.
So, for good risk management, I increased my stop loss to break even at 555 1/4. If it gets hit today before the market close, I still have room to the current target of 573 to get back in next week.
Notice volume has been increasing during this 2 day break out to the upside. That's bullish. And the last 2 swings had a move of over 40 points, as shown in yellow on the chart. If we get a 40 point move this time it would put us at 538 1/2 + 40 = 578 1/4. So there's reason to plan on hitting the 573 target. Really hope the tightened stop doesn't get hit today. But I think its the smart move at the moment for the reasons I stated above.
Bottom Line: I'm long from 554 3/4, with Stop Loss at 555 1/4, and Target at 573.
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