Wednesday, January 4, 2017

SPY Dip Update 3


I'm out. Had to bite the bullet and take the loss. There are 5 bullish signs on the chart at the close:

1) Notice today's candle is closing above the recent channel.

2) Notice today's gap up at the open, which was not filled, after yesterday's doji. Indecision has turned into decisiveness.

3) The combination of today's candle and the previous 2 days forms a Flutter Kicker signal, which is a strong change in sentiment.

4) The DI+ line crossed up over the DI- line.

5) The 14 day Stochastics crossed upward.

Plus stochastics has plenty of room to run.

So, one must accept the facts and switch mental gears. The recent down channel, with proper confirmation, was really just a Bull Flag. Did I do anything wrong? No, not wrong. You could say down channels usually break to the upside, so I could have been more cautious and waited for a break out of the channel to the downside. Technically I think I did everything right, but I could have had more respect for the possibility this was a bull flag in the making.

The bottom line is that not all trades will work, whether taken for a fundamental reason or a technical reason. A good trade is not necessarily the trade that worked, its the trade that followed all your trading rules. I followed my rules and I was patient for a definitive outcome, and I exited rather than hold on for hope's sake alone. So I will classify this as a good trade. It just doesn't feel that way when I look at the little divot in my P&L.

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