Wednesday, January 18, 2017

XLP Scoop Pattern Update 1


As of lunchtime, our position is working nicely.

I added a horizontal line labeled H. It marks the Halfway point of the measured move (it bisects wave AB). I have found that there's often resistance at the halfway point. Sometimes it's so strong that price reverses there and doesn't retest for a very long time. So, a conservative strategy is to set the halfway mark as the target. Or, you can sell some of your position there and move your stop to break even.

Also, if you look back to late Oct. - early Nov. you'll see there was congestion right at the halfway mark level. That can provide resistance also.

Then we have the 200SMA a little higher, and we have the inauguration on Fri. So this may be a bumpy ride.

The Scoop pattern often leads to a strong move. Since the option spread provides a fixed risk, I will probably hold through all the bounces, unless we hit my stop.

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