Wednesday, January 22, 2020

INTC bullish pattern vs Earnings Report in 2 days - Update 1


Its 15:00 on 1/22/2020. Earnings Report coming out after the close tomorrow. Had a very nice nice up day today. My Apr 60 Call option is up about $100 from the 3.27 purchase price. Stochastics are barely overbought. Reasonable target is about 64 as I discussed yesterday. This makes me think I want to scale in some more.

However, you can see the current candle is at the 27.2% Fib extension and way above the upper Bollinger Band. Wouldn't be surprised if this candle drops by half by the close today. Also, I have to remember I shouldn't even be in this trade over the ER. It's one of my rules actually lol.

So I thought about it and rather than add more calls, which would add risk, I decided to sell an Apr 65 Call for 1.70. This reduces my risk from 3.27 to 3.27-1.70=1.57. Now I own an Apr 60/65 Call Spread for 1.57 with a potential reward of 65-60=5.00. That's a 3:1 R:R, which is nice.

After shorting the 65 Call, I entered 2 exit orders:


  • One is Good Til Cancel sell limit of 4.90, which is as much profit as I can expect. 
  • The other order is to sell the spread if INTC hits $64 before the market close tomorrow.

I will be happy with either of those exits, but I think 64 is too high to hope for by the close tomorrow before the ER. If I don't exit then I'll be sweating out the ER and will probably kick myself whether its a good or bad report.

If its good, INTC could pop over the 64 target and I'll miss out because my profits will be limited to the $5 spread.

If its bad, and INTC drops, then the Call Spread will drop in value significantly. One reason I picked the April expiration, rather than an earlier one, is to preserve some time value if the trade goes against me.


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