TSLA seduced me

Can't believe I went long TSLA the day after we slapped Iran across the face. I was checking a few momo stocks about 10 minutes before the market close. And I saw this chart. It was so beautiful I couldn't help myself. New Year's resolutions be damned.

The angled thick white lines show an AB=CD projection. 

I was taught the current pattern is called a J-hook pattern because that little dip of the past few days is anticipated to be the bottom of a capital J. The J-hook is a bullish pattern, but of course it doesn't always work.

You can see the end point of the AB=CD coincides with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension based on the most recent up leg 327.25 - 435.31. 

The AB=CD and 161.8% Fib both are very close to 500 which is a round number. Round numbers are known to be magnets and levels where important things happen.

TSLA is making new all time highs, so there's no resistance from previous price action. 

I try not to pay attention to fundamentals, and I haven't read or heard anything about why TSLA is rising while so many stocks are lower, but I assume its because oil supply may get constricted due to what's happening with Iran, and therefore electric vehicles will become more popular and maybe even new subsidies might be forthcoming from the government. It doesn't matter and I shouldn't even mention it, but those thoughts added to my seduction.

So after drawing on the chart, realizing all of the above, and seeing there's only about 6 minutes left before the close, I started looking at Call Spreads. Looking at the AB=CD it looks like it'll take about 3 weeks to hit the end point. The Earnings Report is currently expected to be 1/29/20 after the market close, according to EarningsWhispers.com, and I'd want out before that news. The January monthly option expiration is 1/17/20, which is too early. Don't have to worry about the Theta time decay because its a spread. So I looked at the Feb options.

Interestingly the 450/460, 460/470, and 470/480 all cost about $4.00. So why not get the earliest and benefit from more Gamma?

Bottom line, with only a few minutes before the close, I started walking up my offer for the Feb 450/460 spread from the midpoint by 5 cents at a time, about every 15 seconds until $4.25 was accepted. 

I didn't even have time to figure out a Risk:Reward but you could eyeball it was good. I'll figure it out now. 

Assuming the $500 target is hit for TSLA, and I get 90% of the spread, that's (460-450)*90%=9. 

I'd abandon the position if price drops below the bottom of the dip, say 401.50. TSLA price when I got the spread was about 443. The option Delta for the 450 long is .505, and for the 460 short its -.456. So the Delta for the spread is .505-.456=.049. So, (443-401.50)*4.9%=2.

So the reward is 9 and the risk is 2. That's 4.5:1 which is great!

Other than the fundamental fear of the geopolitical scare we just had yesterday, fear of loss, doubt from every good setup that didn't work out, a future bad tweet from Elon Musk or Donald Trump, or some other black swan event, there's no good technical reason not to take this trade. Right?