Sunday, June 28, 2020

Dead man walking.

Number of zombie corporations increasing. If interest rates rise or their credit is reduced they will die. If zombie corporations fail expect unemployment to skyrocket.
US corporate debt approaching half of GDP - a new record. If consumer spending doesn't come back sufficiently, we'll have more zombie companies or bankruptcies.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims for week of 06-20-2020 still close to 1.5 million. What does that say about consumer spending, which is 70% of GDP?
Unemployment as of May 2020 is 13.3%. What does that say about consumer spending?
Largest public debt in world history. Enabled by a reserve currency backed by nothing that's fallen in value by over 96% since its inception.
Here's the government's US Bureau of Labor Statistics data showing you the purchasing power of the US Dollar has fallen by over 96% since its inception.
The Federal Reserve has the largest amount of currency, that it created out of thin air, than any central bank in the world and in history. Supposedly it will be reduced when the debt instruments it bought are paid back to the Fed. But the borrowers are in no condition to pay them off.

The US has gotten away with financial murder because of the demand for the US Dollar and the trust in the solvency of the USA. But we're not solvent and ironically our country's behavior is reducing the demand for our dollars.

The US has used its currency as a threat against other countries to coerce them to behave as we wish. The reaction has been for countries that don't want to be controlled by the USA to find ways around the need for the US Dollar. This is all documented public knowledge, not opinion. The result is diminishing demand for US Treasuries. So the Federal Reserve has taken up the slack by printing dollars, diluting the dollar's value, and buying US Treasuries. Then the US repays its debt with cheaper diluted dollars.

This has been working because of the confidence in the Dollar. But sooner or later the deserved confidence built through history will be lost when its realized today's USA is not the USA of the past.

There are volumes of more information on this situation. I can't know it all, and don't have time to explain everything I have learned, but its all out there, available for free on the internet from credible sources. Recommend spending some time on this.

Conclusion: The most likely way out of our abused runaway financial system is to scrap it and start over with a more stable system that will restore confidence. There will be significant volatility, loss of purchasing power held in US Dollars, and possibly hyper-inflation leading up to the reset of the current financial system. The central banks of the world that have started printing money at record levels will have to continue printing and printing until they break the system.

By the way, this was going to happen eventually. The trigger could have been a financial failure like in 2001 and 2008, or a war, or an environmental catastrophe, or any sufficiently large shock to the system. But it turned out the trigger for a collapse and a reset of the world's currency system, in my opinion, was a pandemic. The pandemic is not the cause, it's the trigger.

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