Our 33.50 Stop was hit 2:24am ET. Good thing compared to no Stop or a "Mental Stop" because I was asleep at 2:24am. Not such a good thing when compared to the unmistakable Bear Flag Breakout pattern we had.
The thin white horizontal line at the base of the candle bodies at the swing low is the midpoint of the thick white angled line segment, which is the CD leg of the AB/CD projection. This is another example of the halfway point into a projected move being the extent of the move. Considering the Fibs near the 200sma and the bottom of the AB/CD projection, it seemed far more likely than the midpoint of the CD leg as the swing low.
We exercised good discipline by not moving the Stop Loss or just exiting the trade but surprisingly the original setup, as aesthetically pleasing as it was, happened to be one of the smaller percentages of the time an AB/CD and Bear Flag Breakout doesn't work out. Have to just accept it and look for the next trade where we might make our money back, and then some. It seems like the first trade setup you should take, but don't, because you think "I've taken some hard losses lately so I'll just watch this time", is the trade where you miss out on a large win that covers all your losses. If you believe in your methodology then you really need to take every valid setup.
The sad result of this failed trade is:
31.90 Entry - 33.55 Exit = -1.65 * $600/pt = -$990.
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