Friday, April 23, 2021

Options Max Pain






Some traders believe in "Options Max Pain". This is where deep pocketed options market makers, the ones who sell most of the options, will spend millions to buy or sell stocks on expiration Friday, and maybe during the few days leading up to expiration Friday, such that they will make the most profits by having the majority of options expire worthless. If they sold the options, and the options expire worthless, then the market makers keep all the premium they collected on those expired options.

I don't know if this is true, but I certainly have seen where my projections for price based on technical analysis seem to hold off on monthly option expiration day, then go towards my target the following Monday.

Here's an example using Draftkings (DKNG) on Interactive Brokers Traders Workstation platform today 4/23/21. The top image is a 1 minute chart. The bottom image is the option chain today at 3:45pm ET, 15 minutes before the market close.

Notice the bulk of the Call Open Interest, circled in red on the left, is above 55, and you could make an argument that a high percentage is from 57 and higher. Notice circled on the right most of the Put Open Interest is from 58 on down.

Now take a look at the chart. Notice how price oscillates around 58 all day and closes at 58.12. Hmmm, isn't that right between the bulk of the Put and Call contracts? Wouldn't that make the most money for the options writers? And the corollary would be the maximum pain for the option buyers.

Coincidence? 

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