May Corn Bullish Report - Exit

These 2 Crop reports were due out 12:00 ET today:

• Crop Production.
• World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

By 10:15am ET this morning I figured the corn market was going to just drift sideways until the reports came out (see the 15 minute chart at the top). Unless you hire Mr. Beeks from "Trading Places"

you can't know the response to the reports. Since we made a new higher swing low at 549 3/4 on 4/6/21, we raised our Stop from the original 531 to just under the new swing low. See the middle chart above. So, at 10:18am ET I sent the following Tweet:

"Moved Stop up to 549 on our Long May Corn Futures trade.  Just below recent swing low of 549 3/4. Crop reports  due out 12:00 ET today."

You can see on the above 15 minute chart at the top that price slowly crept upward until the reports came out. Then we see the classic "Stops Sweep", where price pops up then drops. See the top and bottom charts above. This messes up a lot of newer traders by triggering a buy then taking out their Stop. But we were prepared, as per our Tweet yesterday, and posted on yesterday's blog post:

"Split the position into 2 targets. The original 619 and added 593 at the 27.2% Fib Ext. If 593 is hit, moving Stop to breakeven."

So the initial response to the reports hit our 1st target and I moved up our Stop as planned. The Limit order was filled at 593. See the top chart above. Then sent out the following Tweet at 12:02pm ET:

"1st target hit! Moved Stop up to 578 break even on remaining position in our Long May Corn Futures trade."

Then at 14:14 ET our breakeven Stop was hit and filled at 577 5/8. 

So, bottom line:

1st position:

Entered 565 4/1/21

Sold 593 4/9/21

Profit 593 - 565 = 28 * $10/pt = $280

2nd position:

Entered 577 7/8 4/1/21

Sold 577 5/8 4/9/21

Profit 577 5/8 - 577 7/8 = -1/4 * $10/pt = -$2.50

Net 280 - 2.50 = +$277.50

Of course, looking back with 20/20 hindsight, I wish we used the full contracts. But nice to get a win and be safely out before the weekend.