Thursday, June 3, 2021

Wheat Might Make Some Bread - Update 2



Not a good day. The candles on the daily chart above, for yesterday and the trading day before, formed a Bearish Harami candlestick pattern, as I mentioned on yesterday's post. Today's price action could be argued to show follow through and confirmation of yesterday's Bearish Harami. You can also see we got more resistance from the 20sma.

However, we came back up at the end of the day to close on the 8ema and 50sma. This is a show of strength and support. Given all the Bullish indications that originally got us in this trade, plus how we closed today, suggests it may be too early to bail on this trade.

Stochastics aren't providing any pressure one way or the other. Volume was normal.

In the middle of the day I was feeling the heat and very motivated to close this trade and prevent any further damage. But I knew the right thing to do, in this particular case, was to wait until the close before making a decision. I had to fight my instincts, born from every non-trading experience I've had in life, and do the opposite. I won't know if I'm glad I did until tomorrow when we see what the market wants to do. But for now, I believe waiting until the end of the day was the right thing to do. And by doing so, we got to see price retreat back to the 8ema, which is an important message.

So, putting this all together, and perhaps the improper distaste of taking a loss, I decided to leave the position on and see how we do tomorrow. That's assuming we survive the overnight trading. The Stop and Target were left unchanged.

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