March Bear Corn

Wide Daily View

Narrow Daily View

Entered a short on March Corn Futures from 622 1/4, using a YC mini contract at $10/point, right at the market Close today. ZC is the full sized contract at $50/pt.

The Daily charts above are very busy. Please focus on the light blue annotations. Here are the bearish indications I see:

• 3 Drive to a Top
• Completed AB=CD (see the 2 longest, thick, white, angled, line segments)
• Bounce off Previous High (see the wide view chart)
• Bearish Harami candlestick pattern
• Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern
• Close below 8ema
• Large candle with Large volume
• Negative Stochastics Divergence
• High Stochastics
• Bounce off Lt Blue 161.8% Fibonacci extension

Selecting the Target at the top of previous congestion, which is coincident with the 50 sma (thick red wavy line). This at about 600.

I set the Stop at 643, just above the recent swing high of 642 1/2.

I think its likely we'll get a bigger pullback but I want to be out of this trade before the big USDA reports on 2/9/22 at 12:00pm ET. Sometimes you see this list abbreviated, or nicknamed, the WASDE Report. Here's the list of reports due out at 12:00

So, in addition to a Stop and a Target, I also entered a conditional order to close out this trade at 11:45am ET on Wednesday 2/9/2022.

Summary:

Entry 622 1/4

Stop 643

Target 602

Risk = 622.25 - 643 = -20.75

Reward = 622.25 - 602 = 20.25

R:R = 1:1 which is worse than the recommended minimum 1:2 ratio but this looks like a high probability trade.