Tuesday, March 1, 2022

Hogs Turned Tail - Exit




Around 9:50am ET I was looking at the Daily chart at the top above and the 1 hour chart underneath. In yesterday's post I said: 

"If we form a green candle tomorrow, across from red candle from the previous day (Fri), then that would create a Morning Star candlestick pattern, which is Bullish.".

Well, that's exactly what I saw happening. In addition, you can see a Doji Gap Up candlestick pattern on the hourly chart. This is another Bullish pattern.

I needed to decide whether to get out here and minimize the loss, assuming price continued upward, or wait until the end of the day and see if we get a reversal. At 9:54am I decided the Doji Gap Up was a good reason to exit immediately, which I did.

Right after, I sent this Tweet:

"Sold the April Lean Hogs Futures Apr Put at 3.9, details later."

Turns out it was a good decision. Here's the Daily chart after the 14:05 ET Close:



Notice how we closed over the 8ema. Had I waited until the Close to make a decision, I would have exited there, for a bigger loss.

Summary:

In: 4.425
Out: 3.900
Net: 3.9000 - 4.425 = -0.525 * $400/pt = -$-210.00



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