Shorted Dec Corn - Exit

Sent a Tweet 6:22am ET saying we moved our Stop to break even and would exit by the end of the day, which we did. Sent Tweet 2:12pm announcing the exit.

Given that we had some profit and this is the Friday before a very high profile Election Day in the USA next Tuesday, it seemed prudent to take off the risk exposure. 

Summary:

Entry 401 (10/28/20)

Exit 398 1/4 (10/30/20)

Profit 401 - 398 1/4 = 2.75 * $10/pt = $27.50

Log it as a win.

Dec Wheat Looks Weak - Exit

Sent a Tweet 6:22am ET saying we moved our Stop to break even and would exit by the end of the day, which we did. Sent Tweet 2:12pm announcing the exit.

Given that we had some profit and this is the Friday before a very high profile Election Day in the USA next Tuesday, it seemed prudent to take off the risk exposure. 

Summary:

Entry 610 5/8 (10/27/20)

Exit 598 (10/30/20)

Profit 610 5/8 - 598 = 12.625 * $10/pt = $126.25

Log it as a win.

Dec Wheat Looks Weak - Update 2

The set of possible trading errors is seemingly infinite. Yesterday's post said I entered a conditional order to short another contract if price drops below 600 3/4, which I did. Subsequently, price dropped to a low of 598 1/2 but our order didn't fire off.

After some investigation I figured out why. I entered a Market order with a condition. It turns out on the Interactive Brokers Trader's Workstation, Market orders cannot work after hours. If you want your order to work after hours you must use a Sell Stop order. Lesson learned. 

A trader must master at least 4 different domains:

• Trading Platform
• Technical Analysis
• Money Management
• Psychology

Make a mistake in any one of them and you can lose real money. And retail traders normally trade alone. So no one can say, "hey man, you know Market orders won't trigger after hours right?". And all those possible errors are in addition to the expected percentage of orders that will fail even if you do everything right.

I love trading but wouldn't recommend this to anyone.

TLT 6 Bullish Indications - Exit

The bullish setup is still intact but price reversed in the face of resistance from:

• Down angled trend line, which is top of a channel.
• Hit equal up leg move as previous up leg, see thick yellow line segments.
• Hit 200sma.
• Hit 20sma (yesterday).
• Hit previous swing low at 160.64 (yesterday).

We are experiencing strong volatility today due to European Covid news and the US election in a few days. I would have exited by Friday's close anyway due to the election.

We could have more upside but exiting seems to be the most prudent decision. Sold the Dec 160 Call option for $4.45 near the close. Sent Tweet regarding this exit 3:46pm ET.

Summary:

Entry 3.00 10/23/20

Exit 4.45 10/28/20

445-300=$145. Add to the Winning column.

Shorted Dec Corn

Daily

Weekly

Dec Corn setup a short trade. Entered using the YC contract, to control risk, at the close at 401. Here's what I saw on today's Daily chart:

• Shooting star candle pattern.
• High stochastics.
• High volume.
• Doji gap down candle pattern.
• Close under 8ema.
• Close near bottom of candle.
• Bounce off weekly contract high (see Weekly chart above). 

Target is 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the green range, which coincides with the 38.2% Fib retracement of the yellow range, which is 384. Actual target is set to 384 1/4 to account for Bid/Ask spread and slippage.

Stop is 415 1/2 which is just over today's high.

Risk: 401 - 415 1/2 = -14 1/2 * $10/pt = -$145.00

Reward: 401 - 384 1/4 = 16 3/4 * $10/pt = $167.50

R:R 167.50/145 = 1:1.16 not very good but acceptable given a high probability setup.

Dec Wheat Looks Weak - Update 1

Today's price action was constructive. I added a conditional order after the close where if price drops below 600 3/4 (today's low) then short another YW contract with target 588 1/2 (1st contract target is 588 1/4) and stop 615 (just over today's high).

Dec Wheat Looks Weak

The rightmost daily candle (for 10/28/2020) just opened about 15 minutes ago at 20:00 ET on 10/27/2020. This gives us a continuation downward after a close beneath the 8ema. See the comments on the chart for the setup, target, stop, and Risk:Reward.

The entry was a conditional order that if price hits 612 1/2 then sell a futures contract. Except we experienced a little slippage and the actual entry was 610 5/8.

Using the YW contract instead of the ZW contract to control risk since we didn't get a bearish candle pattern at the top of the recent swing high.