Overnight and early morning looked great. You can see the clear break out to the upside. But then price reversed and kept going down further than what would be considered a trend line retest. Price closed very close to my stop, but the candle pattern of today and yesterday is not a sell signal. However, we did close under the 8ema, which is bearish.
I'm not sure what will happen next when the market re-open's 8pm ET tonight or 9:30am ET tomorrow. I see 3 likely scenarios:
1) Open up and continue up.
2) Go down to the 200sma, which is also where the 50sma is, then bounce and start back up. This will probably stop me out, and looks like the most likely scenario.
3) Go down to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, then bounce and start back up.
Of course, anything can happen. If I get stopped out, I'm going to continue to watch it for a bullish entry. Definitely took some heat today but stayed with it because I expected a retest, and this might be just that but got a little carried away.
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