Tuesday, November 26, 2019

March 2020 Wheat Update 4


Don't fear the Hammer. Today we made a Hammer Candle, but with just a tiny wick so its not a perfect Hammer, but its close enough. Given that stochastics are over 80 and we closed over the Bollinger Bands yesterday, a Hammer Candle would normally suggest we're at a local high. 

However, we closed near the top of the candle today and well above the 3ema. And the medium term pattern is a Frypan Bottom with heavy relative volume yesterday and today. This says profit taking today had a very limited effect. Because we closed near the open, buying pressure must have been close to the selling pressure. These are all bullish signs.

Also, look at the Hammer Candles on 9/16/19 and 10/1/19. They both were followed by a relatively shallow dip then a nice move higher. If we get any dip, I'd expect it would be similar.

Yesterday I mentioned the BB/KC Squeeze we've been in with a possible imminent break out. If you look closely you'll see the Bollinger Bands are just beginning to cross over outside the Keltner Channel. If we get follow through in the next couple trading days, its a signal suggesting another 5-7 days in the uptrend, with about a 70% success rate if I remember correctly.

We have limited trading hours the rest of the week:

Limited hours are a little frustrating and worrisome, but it makes sense to me to hold through it.  Keep your stems crossed. (Leave a comment if want an explanation for that little bit of dad humor.)

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