This trade was dependent on the event of price closing below the neckline. It went the other way today. The previous 2 candles formed a Bullish Harami pattern but didn't confirm because it closed under the 8ema. Today it did.
You can see today's candle closed over the 8ema but it also closed right on the 200sma. That's a possible signal price will reverse tomorrow and go back down, but that's just a hint versus an actual signal of a green candle closing over the 8ema. Plus today's action was on relatively strong volume.
Also, notice the low of the big red candle on 2/13/20 is higher than the low on the previous swing low on 1/31/20. A higher low is a bullish sign.
There are some other indications, but they provide additional contradictory suggestions. Bottom line is that the strongest evidence is bullish.
So, what I did was cover the 200 short sales for 18.80 near the market close. Loss is:
(18.60-18.80)*100=-19.80
(18.60-18.80)*100=-23.00
Total -42.80
Small loss, imposing no emotional resistance.
I kept the March 20 Calls for 2 reasons. One is if today was a genuine bullish reversal then the Calls will increase in value. The other reason is that if this a fake out, and price starts downward, I'll want to get back into a short position, and I'll need the Calls for protection.
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