Friday, February 14, 2020

UE Double Headed Double Short (Video)


This is a really cool setup for a number of reasons. First it has 2 Head and Shoulder patterns with coincident necklines. If price breaks through one, it'll break through the other. 

There's a lot going on here so I made a 12 minute video:


The options for this stock are terrible, in that they have a large Bid/Ask Spread and almost no volume. However, I can use them for protection to the upside if I short the stock. Since I'd exercise the options rather than sell them, the Bid/Ask Spread and liquidity don't matter.

Here's a screen shot of the calls I got:



I've been trading futures and Forex much more these days than stocks, but when I trade stocks I like to use a Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart to confirm its a good setup from a completely different angle. Here's that chart from FreeStockCharts:



Price is below the Kumo cloud and all the lines, and the lagging line has dropped below price. So this is a good bearish setup from a Ichimoku perspective.

I forgot to mention in the video the AB/CD price projection. See the purple lines in the original chart above. Notice how the D point, which is the target estimate, coincides with the price projection from the smaller Head and Shoulders.

Summary:


Shorted 200 @ 18.58
Got 2 Mar 20 Calls @ .10 for protection.
2 Targets 16.75 and 16.15, H&S=S/R, H&S=AB/CD.
Risk (20-18.58)*200=$284
Reward=(18.58-16.75)*100+(18.58-16.15)*100=$526


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