ZW March Wheat Story of Heroic Discipline - Exit

I kinda caved today. The target was 524 but I saw some signs of a potential bounce tomorrow and didn't want to give up the gains. So I changed the target to the 61.8% Fib retracement at 536 1/2.

We got close to the new target near the end of the grains market hours (2:20pm ET). We hadn't hit the target yet and I figured day traders will start to take profits soon by covering their shorts, which will drive the price up. 

I also saw today was a relatively large candle. Large candles tend to retrace the next day, usually by about half the candle or so. 

Also, we hit the Head and Shoulders half measured move; see the thin purple horizontal line. I've seen where that level has provided strong support in the past, and there's no guarantee we'll hit the 61.8% Fib.

In addition, the stochastics entered oversold territory under the 20 level. This is where you start looking for a reversal in price trend.

Frankly, I do think there's a good chance price will make it all the way down to the original target at 524 eventually, but the observations above, combined with the memory of the pain of giving up several hundred dollars the last time I gave Wheat some leeway, and I decided to tighten things up.

So, I went down to the 10 minute chart with the thought I'll ride this down as far as I can and see what it looks like right before the close, but if I see any kind of reversal signal, I'm selling. 

Price continued down and respected a downward trend line on the 10 minute chart (see the down angled thin white line), until it started to reverse a little. Then I lowered my stop loss just over the trend line but high enough that price shouldn't hit it if the momentum was still down. As you probably guessed, price pierced the trend line and continued up until it hit my stop. It never went back down below it before the close, which made me feel validated.

So right now, I feel great. Made 556 1/4 (2/6/20) - 541 = 15 1/4 * $50/pt = $762.50. If you subtract what I lost on the unexpected reversal (see the original posting on 2/6/20), then net profits other than commission is $762.50 - 275 = $487.50.

I'll count that as a win. Plus if we get a bounce tomorrow, which would not be surprising, then if it makes a nice high, we can get back in and ride it back down again. If not, I don't want to chase it with the low stochastics, but I'll be looking for a bottom to catch the retrace or reversal back up.