Nice day in the Soybean Meal factory. Had a gap down, a relatively big candle, and a close under the 8ema, and a close near the bottom of the candle. All of that is bearish.
It was such a strong move I wouldn't be surprised if we get a bit of a retrace tonight or tomorrow. If we do, followed by a rollover, I'll most likely add to the short position.
Stochastics have barely budged. I'm thinking we should move the target down to the second level, which is the 61.8% Fib retracement. But it seems likely we'll get a bounce off the 50% Fib or the 50sma, 34ema, or 20sma before reaching the 61.8% Fib. If I knew we'd get a bounce, I'd keep the 50% Fib target, take the profits and get back in on the pull back for another down move to the 61.8% Fib. And in the absence of that certainty, its the safer move because the 50% Fib may be all we get. Or maybe we get close to the 61.8% Fib but don't hit it before retracing all the way back up.
I'll leave the original target on for now and see what happens tomorrow.
No comments:
Post a Comment