It's 6:30am ET on 3/12/20. Overnight last night, beginning after the Presidents address on Covid-19 at 9pm ET, Soybeans started dropping. Eventually it triggered our Sell Stop Limit order, and continued dropping. This morning we have a healthy start down toward our target.
I was concerned about how far down our target is relative to how far down stochastics are. We already hit the 27.2% Fib extension. It could be all we get. The trouble maker in my head wants me to take these profits while I can and get back in after a possible bounce off the Fib. The problem is, we may not get much of a bounce. We could miss a re-entry and miss the majority of the move.
I looked in the recent past on the daily chart (use chart on 3/9/20 blog post) and see the period of 11/20/19 - 12/2/20. Stochastics were on the dead bottom of its range. Pinned to the floor as price made a substantial move from about 940 to 899. That stochastic behavior could happen for us here on this trade.
So, while there is a valid concern we may reverse off the 27.2% Fib, and lose the current paper profits, I think the odds favor a further drop on this trade. Just going to hold the position for now and see how the day goes.
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