Tuesday, March 3, 2020

ZC May Corn Futures Bullish Reversal Update 2


Hopefully you saw my earlier post from this morning changing my target to the 50% Fib instead of the 61.8% Fib.

The market came up and hit the 382 target, yielding a profit of 382-376=6*$50/pt=$300.

After that I expected a rejection leg downward (see earlier post), which we got. I wanted to catch the pivot where price started going long again so I could get back in with the expectation of hitting the 61.8% Fib second target. So I dropped down to the 10 minute chart to catch that pivot and kept an eye on it as I did my scalp trades on other instruments.

The chart above is that 10 minute chart. It shows we didn't get a clean J-hook pattern back up. Instead it formed a pennant pattern. You can see the second to last candle of the day came down and actually touched my stop loss at 380. But the Bid/Ask spread was 380/380 1/4 so it didn't trigger. A quarter point lower, 1 tick further down, and it would have triggered for a $100 loss. But I lucked out and it started going back up and closed in the middle of the pennant before ending the trading day in corn at 14:20 ET.

If it gaps down when the market re-opens at 8pm ET, I'll be wishing we were stopped out. We'll see what happens.

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