Wednesday, March 4, 2020

ZC May Corn Futures Bullish Reversal Exit


Wish there was no overnight trading. I don't have actual statistics but I think the large majority of trades I hold overnight, that have a stop loss, get stopped out. 

I know I can buy an option just for the overnight session, and I've certainly done that for weekends many times, but while it protects you it also counts against your profits. Since the market is open all night and there is a stop loss, you don't need an option for protection. Well, there could be a black swan event, like the surprise Swiss Franc unpegging from the Euro. A stop loss won't help you there while an option would. 

Also, your position could go to your target and continue much further which would reduce the value of the option more than expected, and you could lose more value in your option than the profit in your underlying instrument, especially if its a new position, like in this case, where the profit amount is small compared to the cost of the option.

If you got an option every night and lost money selling it the next morning for several days in a row, that's going to eat into your profits also.

So, as you may have guessed by now, I got taken out at 2:36am ET last night for a loss of 382-379 1/2=2.5*$50/pt=$125. This leaves 300-125=$175 profit per contract. 

From here, price could shoot right up to the next target, but could also go down or worse, it could meander up and down in a channel of consolidation causing loss after loss if I try to chase this up. I took a shot at the next target and used a tight stop to make sure I kept some profit and it didn't work out, but I'll call this a win and move on to better opportunities.

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