Friday, September 25, 2020

Here's what an actual scalp looks like.



I normally don't include scalps on this blog because I'm in and out before there's any time to post. While swing trades last days and you can see I'm blogging about an ongoing actual trade. But this was a beauty and I really wanted to share it.

The chart above is the 3 minute PNW stock chart I used to trade it. To the bottom left you'll notice a triple bottom. Then a nice leg up followed by consolidation. 

The angled thick white line segments is the AB=CD price projection. The D point is about 74.

I drew Fibs to cover the 1st leg up. You can see the 61.8% Fib Extension at 73.95.

Price broke out of the consolidation from about 11:00 - 13:00. That's when I entered the trade. This stock has terrible Options. Low volume and wide Bid/Ask spreads. So I needed to use the stock. Since we're trading over a small price range on the 3 minute chart, we'll need a decent amount of stock, but its a Friday afternoon and I didn't want to risk too much, especially with all the headline risk these days.

I bought 200 shares at 13:37 for 73.20 each. I put my stop under the 20sma and under the top of the consolidation area. Subsequently, a beautiful Cup and Handle pattern was formed. I drew the the thick white, mostly horizontal brim line, which eventually intersected the Handle. You estimate the measured move by drawing a vertical line from the brim line to the bottom of the cup, then copy that line and place it on the breakout level of the handle (see the little vertical thick white lines). This projected a move to about 73.90.

Notice the beautiful confluence of 3 different methodologies:

AB/CD: 74
Fib 61.8% Extension: 73.95
C&H: 73.90

The target was the 61.8% Fib (73.95) Ext but I faded it by 5 ticks (73.90) to line up with the C&H projection and allow room for slippage and Bid/Ask spread. Also it was getting pretty late on a Friday and I was suspecting price would fall a little short due to low liquidity and general market shenanigans.

Well, I was treated to rare perfect price action. It reached a high of exactly 73.90 at 15:18 and my Limit Order was filled. Then it tanked. Thank goodness I faded the 61.8% Fib!

In summary:

Entry 13:37 200 shares @$73.20
Stop 73.12
Target 73.90
Exit 15:18 200 shares @$73.90

Profit 73.90 - 73.20 = .70 * 200 shares = $140
Time 15:18 - 13:37 = 2 hrs 19 minutes.
I was also doing other trading related tasks while monitoring this trade. And lunch :)

This fill was the last trade of the day and the week, and it was such a pleasure. If only all our trades went like this one.

No comments:

Post a Comment