Wednesday, September 9, 2020

Oct Natural Gas Deflating - Update 5



 


The top chart is the Daily and the bottom chart is the 10 minute for the whole day. You can see we got a bit of a retracement. Just about touched the 8ema then retreated. 

Yesterday I said "I think there is a reasonable chance for a partial retrace overnight and maybe into tomorrow." Well that's exactly what happened. So I wanted to add another short position. I did, but I used a stop based on the 10 minute chart rather than the Daily chart to control risk because that big pop we got this last Friday was a sign we need to feel some doubt on this trade. You can see the 10 minute was a bit choppy. I actually added a position twice today, but both times it hit the Stop Loss. Ended up losing $112.50.

So we still have just the original core position. The good news is we closed near yesterday's close, and under the 8ema and even the 3ema. We're still on track for our target. Although, Stochastics are getting a little oversold and we're hitting possible support at the 34ema and a previous swing high around Aug 5th - 10th.

We could get a significant bounce to retest the bottom of the channel trend line. That would put us above our 2.475 entry and in negative territory. I think that would be a bad idea in this trade. So, I lowered our Stop to 2.450. We'll see what the morning brings.

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