Thursday, December 17, 2020

March Nat Gas Bullish Retrace - Update 1




For March Natural Gas Futures, today might as well never happened. We kinda broke out to the upside, over and above the downward Trend Line and made a new swing high, but then we dropped precipitously. We kinda continued down below the 8ema, went below yesterday's low, but then we reversed and closed above the 8ema. So, as a result, there is no change in trend and nothing for us to do but wait for the next candle.

You might say "but wait a minute, we created a Bearish Engulfing candle where today's red body engulfed yesterday's green body". That's true, but since we closed over the 8ema, we don't want to act on that candle pattern yet.

Notice how today's volume 16,966 is greater than the past 4 trading days. I'd say that the Bears had a slight bias but not enough to decisively over power the Bulls. But it looks like a pretty good battle took place. If the Bears give up tomorrow, we could get a nice acceleration up.

Tomorrow afternoon will be a difficult call if we end with another neutral day, whether to exit for the weekend or take the risk of holding until Sunday night.

For tonight's after market trading, I'm just leaving our Stop in place and waiting for tomorrow.

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