Dec Wheat Looks Short - Update 4

Above is a zoomed in Daily chart just after the 20:00 ET Wheat market open last night. I sent the following Tweet with that chart at 20:23 ET:

"Our Dec Wheat Futures short position opened tonight with a small gap down, which is nice. But I don't like how its starting to creep up like ivy on a wall. 

So just in case, moved our Stop to break even at 748. The previous trading day high was 747 3/4, which is over the 8ema. If the Stop is taken out, then we're probably making at least a 50% retracement up this down leg to about (786 1/2+723 1/2)/2=755."

The price level from which we bounced (approximately 722-726) is a very logical level to provide support and/or resistance. The reason is, its where there was a swing high on 7/20/21 and a swing low from 8/5/21 - 8/10/21. Its also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the yellow range.

Here's today's action at the Close on a Daily chart:

You can see we did continue climbing up, to a high of  745. Just 3 points shy of our 748 Stop. I'm glad it retreated back down and didn't close over the 8ema, or even the 3ema. The chart still looks bearish, and Corn and Soybeans look even more bearish. I don't want to be out of this trade yet.

However, we're certainly not out of the woods. We could climb even higher tomorrow and close over the 8ema, which would suggest an exit.

In the previous post I said:

"If it [the previous congestion at this price level] acts like glue, then we'll trade sideways for days, and then, if we're lucky, we'll break down further, as we expect."

At the moment, this seems like the most likely prognosis. So we'll have to grit our teeth and hold the position for now.