Both of the above charts are Daily charts. The top chart is zoomed in more than the bottom chart. I included the wider chart because I noticed something I hadn't in the previous posts. Going further back to about April 1st, I added the thick, angled, purple line segments. These highlight a bigger AB/CD pattern that tops out at the same level as the shorter term yellow AB/CD. This is another Bearish indication because AB/CD's often reverse after completing.
Just like the previous 3 days, we made a lower low and a lower high. We didn't form an upper wick today. That is to say, the Open price was the same as the High for the day. And we closed below the 8ema. Stochastics are still in the mid-range and accelerating downward. Also, notice how high the volume was today. That tells you there was a significant battle between the Bulls and the Bears, and the Bears won, at least today. All these things are Bearish and strengthens our short thesis.
However, we closed above the mid-point of today's candle, we bounced off the 20sma, and if you look left you'll see we're coming into a previous consolidation area. These are not Bearish.
The expectation is to either drop down through the current level quickly, or to bobble between the 8ema and the 20sma for a few days or so.
If we're fortunate enough to break through the 20sma, we still need to break through the 34ema, 50% Fib, and the 50sma to hit our target, in that order.
We have a very Bearish chart and there was no doubt that we needed to hold our position. By the way, Dec Corn and Nov Soybeans took a nice dump today, which supports our short trade.
It's extremely doubtful we'll hit our target tomorrow because the target is so far away. So, we'll have to decide whether to hold over the weekend and whether to take a hedge for protection.
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