Friday, November 5, 2021

Short Term Short Christmas Corn



On the Daily chart above, of December Corn futures, I noticed the following:

  • Completed AB/CD
  • Bearish Harami candlestick pattern
  • Bounce off Trend Line
  • High Stochastics
  • Close below 8ema & continuation

So, I entered a short position using the YC mini-contract at $10/point, rather than the ZC contract at $50/pt. 

Set the Target to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 531 1/4. Actual Target will shade the mathematical Target by a little to account for slippage and Bid/Ask Spread.

Used a Stop just above the high of the second candle back, that also gives close to a 1:1 risk:reward ratio. A better Stop would be just above the previous swing high at 586, which is also coincident with the downward angled Trend Line (thin white line). But that would give a terrible risk:reward and I'm concerned we may get a bounce off the 20sma (green).

Summary:

Entered: 11/5/2021 14:15 ET at 553 1/8.
Stop: 573
Target: 532

Risk: 553 1/8 - 573 = 19 7/8
Reward: 553 1/8 - 532 = 21 1/8
R:R = 21.125/19.875 = 1:1.06 not great but acceptable.


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