Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Ag Reports Cut the Corn - Exit





In my original post for this thread, I wrote "Triangles are notoriously unreliable, in that the price can break out one way and quickly reverse and break out to the opposite side." Well, here's a @#$%^&*! example.

We had bounced off the 50sma on the Daily chart above and formed a Bullish Harami candlestick pattern. Next day we closed over the 8ema, then today we continued up, violated both of the Triangle Trend Lines, and hit our Stop at 612. Total change of the investor sentiment compared to what we saw in response to the major USDA report released 1/12/2022.

Can't expect to win them all. That's why, no matter how good you feel about a setup, you need to use position sizing such that your Stop won't cost you too much. We should place our Stop where it belongs, then protect ourselves by adjusting the position size accordingly. 

Summary:

Entry: 587 3/4
Exit: 612 1/2
Net:  587.75 - 612.5 = -24.75 * $10/pt = -$247.50

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