March Wheat did an about-face - Update 3

Very good day for our short Wheat trade. On the Daily chart above you can see:

• We set a lower high and a lower low.
• We went lower on increased volume.
• You can see the bottom BB has separated lower than than the KC.
• Each of the last 3 candles have bigger bodies, showing an acceleration.
• Stochastics are not yet oversold.

All of the above are constructive for our short thesis. However, we are very close to previous support at 751. Tomorrow will be very important to see if we breeze by the previous swing low, or react to it and get a pop. This made me want to cash out our current profits today, which are relatively attractive. But that could be a big mistake if price continues its cascading drop off.

Another thing that made me want to take profits was Soybeans. Corn continued to look Bearish but Soybeans did a Doji Gap Up off the 8ema on high volume, which is quite Bullish. This gives me concern, but we have to remember while each of these grains are in the same commodity class, they are also different markets.

Just the fact that I'm looking at a nice profit that I don't want to lose is enough pressure to want to exit. But that's to be expected and a trader must be able to deal with that emotion, or they're doomed to keep leaving more money on the table than they should.

So, at the market close, I had to suck up my fears and go with the odds, which is to leave the position on.

However, I think the 729 target might be a little low. The D point of the white AB=CD is 730.50, and the 200sma has risen to 728.93. So, I raised the Target to 732.