Like the title says, this is a high risk trade at the time I entered it, which was at the Close today for 769. One reason its high risk is because we don't have confirmation yet, which would be a higher Close, or higher high and higher low, by the next trading day or two.
But a much greater reason for high risk is that the quarterly "Grains Stocks Report" is due out tomorrow 12:00pm ET. This can whipsaw the grains markets, and unless you hire Mr. Beeks, the reaction to the report is a craps shoot. So we do not want a position in the market at 12:00pm.
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However, due to what I see on the Daily chart above, the odds suggest we should get some more upside, at least up to the Report release. Here's what I see (yellow box on the chart):
- Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern
- Doji Sandwich candlestick pattern
- Close over the 8ema
- Low Stochastics
- Tweezer Bottom candlestick pattern
- Support from Head & Shoulders half measured move 1st Target
- Support from AB=CD 760.50 D point
- Support from 200sma
Since its a high risk trade, I'm using a tight Stop of 747, just under the bottom of the previous Doji candle low. Also using the YW $10/pt mini-contract.
For the Target, I'm looking at the 808 1/2 end point of a clone of the previous leg up. See the thick, forward angled, yellow lines. But I'm shading it a bit to the 50sma, which coincides with the Head & Shoulders Neckline, at about 795.
IMPORTANT: I'm setting an automatic conditional order to sell the position, no matter what, at 11:45am ET.
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