The top chart is from our 3/18/2020 post. The bottom chart is from 4/17/2020 after the close. The swing bottom is 18,214 and our 1st target was 18,020. That's (18,214-18,020)/18,020 = 1% off. That's not coincidence.
The next likely target is:
50% = 23,925
61.8%=25,260
78.6%=27,155
We had a high on Friday, the last trading day, of 24,264, which already exceeds 23,925. The point of including 23,925 as a likely target means we don't go as high as the other 2 targets before reversing and heading back down.
Trading is a world of probabilities. Its not a deterministic world with a single number for a likely target. Although, you can have a most likely target or a range as a target.
If the Federal Reserve keeps printing Monopoly money until they break the Dollar, then the stock market could keep rising in nominal prices to compensate for the lost purchasing power caused by the dilution from each new dollar (see https://jmstweets.blogspot.com/2020/03/why-printing-money-adds-lubrication-to.html). Until the market sees the futility of the effort and loses confidence, then we'll see the real crash. We've only seen the beginning so far.
No comments:
Post a Comment