Thursday, April 30, 2020

ZM Coiled Spring Exit #2



Youza! So let's see, I got a Call on 4/24/20 but I had to dump it when ZM broke to the down side. Then on the 29th I got a Put but it broke bullish like crazy today so I had to dump the Put!

Yesterday, in the first paragraph of my post on the Soybean Oil long bullish trade, I said "One of them is probably wrong.". Now we know Soy Meal was the wrong one. It seemed risky to go short on relatively low stochastics, but sometimes price can go down while stochastics just pin to the floor. So you have to trade what you see, as Larry Pesavento is fond of saying.

Dumping the original Call:

 4.50-2.70 = 1.80 * $100/point = $180 loss.

Dumping the Put:

5.00 - 3.95 = 1.05 * $100/pt = $105 loss.

Total loss on this convoluted trade is $185.  I used options rather than the futures for this trade because I sensed higher than usual risk (see my first post in this thread), and thanks to that risk management, things could have been much worse.

Now ZM will probably continue upward, as I originally anticipated. But its proven to be a little goofy lately, and I'm already in the July Soybean Oil long trade. So I think I'll pass on the ZM trade for a bit.

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