I bailed at 14:18:41, less than 2 minutes before the close of the grains market at 14:20 ET. Notice on the most recent down leg no bar closed above the 3ema. Today we did. I waited to the last minute to make sure that would be the case.
We also formed a bullish engulfing pattern using today's candle and yesterday's candle. And the stochastics are continuing to curl upward in a very oversold condition. That's a reversal pattern.
Also the previous down leg spent 8 days under the 8ema before making a swing bottom. The current down leg has 8 days under the 8ema. The last swing bottom was a distance from the 8ema, so it had room to rise up to it and reject off of it. This time we're close to the 8ema, so we'd likely spend several days over it, which could change the odds of a bearish trend to a bullish trend.
This may be a little too finicky, and it would be a reasonable argument to say we shouldn't exit until we close over the 8ema. However, we've taken some losses lately by being a little less rigorous as we should be, and I want to change that dynamic.
By the way, I added the lavender colored measure I labeled "Max Breach". This is to illustrate a consideration when picking the Stop Loss. Find the wick that went the furthest distance from 8ema (breaching it), then make sure your Stop Loss is further away from the 8ema than that distance on any given day.
So bottom line, I waited until literally the last minute to allow price to close under the 3ema, and when it didn't I pulled the plug.
Entry 335 3/4 - 338 1/4 = 2.5 * $50/pt = $125 loss.
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