Tough call today, whether to exit or not.
On one hand, we bounced off the 50% green Fib level and had a bullish Harami buy signal 2 days ago, broke the down trend line today, closed over the 8ema, over the 50% retracement, and over the 61.8% retracement. Closed near the high of the candle. Stochastics are not over bought. Its perfectly reasonable to exit at this point.
On the other hand, having reached the 61.8% retracement of the little down leg, we could reverse and go down when the market re-opens tonight. Notice the volume is much lower today, which indicates today's up leg did not have conviction. We're pretty close to the stop loss, so maybe its worth staying in and seeing if its hit, giving us the chance to reverse back down. If we simply got out, we wouldn't have that possibility without getting back in after a certain loss, and we'd get back in below the previous swing low, giving up quite a few points. Also, corn, soybeans, and soy meal were all down today. The Soybean Oil weekly chart is in a strong down trend.
As I said, its a tough call. After considering the pros and cons, and remembering many times when I forced an exit, price would immediately reverse and return to the originally predicted direction, I decided to go with the original Stop Loss and keep alive the possibility for a reversal.
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