I had bailed out on 4/7/20 for reasonable reasons. See previous post. But since then we haven't had a high higher than the 8ema, let alone closing over the 8ema. Its just been going sideways as the 8ema has been continuing to slowly decrease. This makes me think we can continue the bearish move this coming week. Plus the risk of a 3 day weekend will be over.
The classic "h" breakout would continue down with a likely target of the one we had, 309. But I need confirmation. Don't want to get in too early again and fail.
So, I entered an order this weekend to short a July Corn Futures that will only trigger if price drops to 330 3/4. This is just under the recent swing low of 331 1/4.
To address the possibility of a big gap down Sunday night at the market open, I used a Stop Limit order, that will narrow the valid range of filling the order to between 330 3/4 - 330 1/4.
The Stop Loss is 341. This is just over the 340 1/2 high of the candle that introduced doubt on 4/7/20. Which is of kind of a mini-swing high.
For a target, we're going to use the 161.8% Fib extension of the green range, at 315 1/2.When the stochastics were lower on the previous entry on 4/3/20, the 127.2% Fib would have looked more appealing because the expectation of a bounce was higher. But since then the stochastics have lifted up off the bottom a bit, and the 161.8% Fib level is close to the AB/CD projection, we'll use that target. However, we'll probably move the Stop Loss down to break even when price hits the 127.2% Fib in case we get a reaction to it, which would be very normal.
Risk: 330 1/4-341=10 3/4.
Reward: 330 1/4-315 1/2=14 3/4.
R:R=1:1.37.
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