I sent the following Tweet 14:17 ET "Selling our long December Wheat Futures position. Details later.".
Why? We rejected off the resistance level comprised of the 3ema, 8ema, 20sma, 34ema, and 50sma. Then, today, we closed under the 8ema, and most markets were down significantly, including corn, soybeans, and soybean products.
It looks like a risk off/fear trade and people are selling whatever they can. While I'm a believer in the Gartley pattern, we have to recognize it doesn't hit its target all the time. My work and research shows a high win rate, approximately 75%. I'm still working on calculating statistics on my own Gartley trades this year, but it looks like it'll be in that range.
Given the roll over look of the past 4 days on the daily chart above, combined with everything else I said, the smartest thing to do is exit our long position today and monitor the market for a good re-entry point.
Summary:
Entry 712 5/8
Exit 700 5/8
Net 700 5/8 - 712 5/8 = -12 * $10/pt = -$120.00 loss.
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