Friday, February 26, 2021

May Corn Rise - Update 7




This was a tough one. There is a case to hold and a case to bail.

On one hand, we recovered very nicely from a bearish down day and closed very close to the 8ema. We apparently got support from the 20sma and 20ema. We haven't been able to close below the 8ema for 5 days. The greater trend is clearly upward. We have 3 incidents of support from the 20sma between 1/21/21 - 2/22/21, even when we're looking weak. The BB's inside the Keltner Channel suggest we're in a sideways consolidation, not a down leg. Stochastics are still mid-range, so we're not overbought.

On the other hand, we did close a little under the 8ema. The past few days look like a lower swing high, which, if true, is a bearish indication. We have a full moon tomorrow which can signal a change in trend for some asset classes, including Corn (I know that sounds crazy to the uninitiated, but, as I've covered in past posts, the historical data and very smart, experienced, professional traders give it some serious weight in their trading). However, a caveat on the moon influence is that you're in a strong trend. We're going sideways, which means we should discount the influence from a full moon. Also, there's a bearish Gartley-like pattern from the recent swing high at 572. And you can see from the volume today and yesterday there is a battle raging between the Bears and the Bulls, with neither yet winning. 

You can see why its a tough call whether to hold over the weekend or sell today and get back in next week if things are looking Bullish. The thing is, if you sell today for safety, and corn gaps up at the open Sunday night and continues up, we'd miss the gap and have a hard time entering back in without a pull back. So we could miss the whole rest of the trade.

I considered that holding our position has proved to be the right move so far, even when we took a dip on 2/19/21 and closed under the 8ema. Given all that plus considering we're trading the mini sized contract, I decided to hold the position over the weekend.

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