March Natural Gas Bearish Gartley

We have a Gartley Pattern that satisfies my "relaxed" set of rules. By "relaxed" I mean it may not fit a traditional strict set of rules, such as the following diagram, but I was taught by a well known trader a more relaxed set of rules that still has a success rate of 65% or so. By "success rate" I mean it hits a 61.8% retracement of the AD leg.

Because its quite possible we'll continue higher and surpass the current D point, I want to mitigate our risk by using the QG mini contract, where 1 point is $2500, as opposed to the full size NG contract where 1 point is $10,000.

I went ahead and entered a bearish trade because the current D point satisfies the AB=CD Pattern where it reached the 61.8% Fib of the green range and the nearby 27.2% Fib extension of the yellow range. Like I just said above, price could continue to rise and make a new D point at the 78.6% Fib of the green range near the 61.8% extension of the yellow range. But if we wait for that and we drop from here instead, we'll miss the whole trade.

Entered today at 2.880.

Stop just over the D point at 3.060.

Target .618AD = 3.057 - .618(3.057-2.268) = 2.569 

    (actual target is 2.575 to account for slippage and .005 minimum increment in the QG contract.)

Risk: 3.060 - 2.880 = .180 * $2500 = $450.

Reward: 2.880 - 2.575 = .305 * 2500 = $762.50

R:R = 762.50/450 = 1:1.7 which isn't great but its acceptable.

(P.S. I know the trailing 0 on a decimal is unnecessary since its implied without writing it but it shows precision of the number and it looks nice. It also matches the way price is shown on the y-axis of the chart.)