At 9:01am ET this morning I Tweeted "Moved Stop to break even on short position ahead of the Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30am ET in case there's a sympathetic reaction.".
At 9:32 I Tweeted the Stop was hit. We exited at 2.860. Profit was:
2.880-2.860=.020*$2500/pt=+$50.
Tomorrow at 10:30am ET we'll get the weekly Natural Gas Storage Report. Leaving a trade on during one of these reports is a craps shoot. That's just gambling without an edge in my opinion. There may be a way to have an edge, but I don't know what it is. I only want to take trades where I have a positive expectancy. So, I don't mind being out. However, we are still in the middle of a Gartley pattern. If we get a negative response to the report tomorrow, or otherwise resume a downward trajectory, I want to re-enter this short trade.
As long as the X point at 3.320 isn't breached, then I'll look for an entry point. I was thinking about having an automatic strategy, like a conditional sell order that's at least a minute after the report and the price is below today's Open or maybe below today's Low. But the reaction to the report might be crazy and last more than 1 minute, so I'll just trade it manually.
While I was considering entering the automatic order, I looked back at some previous Thursday's on the 1 minute chart to see how long the reaction to the report actually lasted. Here's what I found:
These are the 1 minute charts of 1/14/21, 1/21/21, 1/28/21, and 2/4/21. As you can see, the "stop sweeps" adverse reaction, if there is one, doesn't last more than 1 minute on this exceptionally small sample set. Didn't have time for a good study, but still wanted to do a limited search.
So, bottom line for today is we're safely out of harms way with a $50 profit, and looking to re-short NatGas after 10:30am ET tomorrow.
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